{"id":825336,"date":"2025-05-23T10:51:37","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T08:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=825336"},"modified":"2025-05-23T10:56:41","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T08:56:41","slug":"double-blow-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/825336\/double-blow-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Double blow for petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>South African motorists have been dealt a big blow by National Treasury announcing fuel tax hikes this week, while fuel price recoveries continue to shrink.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While petrol and diesel are currently still projected to come down in June, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund shows that the over-recoveries are narrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, motorists will have to absorb a 15 and 16 cents per litre increase to the general fuel levy, taking effect when the next price changes kick in on 4 June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that petrol prices could see a small hike in June, if the rand weakens or oil prices rise further in the coming week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data for the end of week three in May show an over-recovery of 19 cents per litre for petrol and 48 cents per litre for diesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When factoring in the 15 cents and 16 cents per litre tax hike for diesel and petrol, respectively, the net result would be a 33 cents and 3 cents per litre cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This puts <strong>petrol prices in particular on the cusp of swinging into a hike<\/strong>, especially as the over-recovery for the fuel has been narrowing all month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest data from the CEF shows the following projections:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark>&nbsp;<\/mark>of 20 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:&nbsp;<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark>&nbsp;<\/mark>of 19 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark>&nbsp;of 48 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&nbsp;<\/mark>of 49 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark>&nbsp;of 52 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Factoring in the coming fuel levy increases, this is the current projected outcome:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark>&nbsp;<\/mark>of 4 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:&nbsp;<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark>&nbsp;<\/mark>of 3 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark>&nbsp;of 33 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&nbsp;<\/mark>of 34 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Note: <\/strong><em>While the latest budget includes a 3 cents per litre hike in the carbon fuel tax as well, this increase was already applied in April.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuel price recoveries have been coming down along with the international oil price, which has gained following the easing of market tensions in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices crashed following the launch of the April tariff war by the Trump administration in the United States, as markets anticipated a dramatic global slowdown in productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While a slowdown is still expected amid the ongoing uncertainty, markets have at least stabilised, pushing oil prices higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg&#8217;s analysis of the market, oil prices remain under pressure, trading around $64 a barrel, but are up from the weaker position at the start of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, crude oil has shed about 14% this year, hitting the lowest since 2021 last month, as OPEC+ loosened supply curbs at a faster-than-expected pace, just as the US-led trade war posed headwinds for demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data this week showed another rise in US commercial oil stockpiles, adding to concerns about a surplus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, the swings in oil prices have led to them contributing to an under-recovery in local petrol prices to the tune of 16 cents per litre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel prices are still enjoying an over-recovery of about 12 cents per litre on balance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The real hero for local fuel prices is the rand, which has strengthened significantly off the back of more stable conditions both inside and outside South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand\/dollar exchange rate is contributing to a 35 cents per litre over-recovery in prices for both petrol and diesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has recovered to below R18.00 to the dollar in May, driven by a return to stability in government\u2014with the Government of National Unity (GNU) holding firm around the budget\u2014as well as talk of lowering the country&#8217;s inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The currency weakened slightly following the budget tabled this week, and the showdown between president Cyril Ramaphosa and US president Donald Trump on Wednesday (21 May).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, this reflected some mild investor concern.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fuel price recoveries are trending lower as we head to the end of the month, and the coming tax hikes in June could swing the expected cuts into a small increase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":714644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[19909,2171],"class_list":["post-825336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/825336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=825336"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/825336\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":825351,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/825336\/revisions\/825351"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/714644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=825336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=825336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=825336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}