Meizlish is well-positioned to comment on these matters as he was previously with the U.S. Department of the Treasury\u2019s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also previously supported several principals at a premier lobbying firm in Washington, DC, on matters involving foreign assistance, defence, and public relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In his current role at the Centre on Economic and Financial Power, he focuses on sanctions designations, tools of economic statecraft, and Treasury-related policy and research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In his Wall Street Journal column, he said a reckoning is coming for South Africa, and that the Trump administration and Congress are aware of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, financial markets underestimate the risks associated with South Africa, which Meizlish described as a problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He said most finance houses price in South Africa\u2019s deteriorating conditions, including high unemployment, power and water outages, and failing state-owned enterprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, they underestimate the impact of the government\u2019s alignment with rogue nations and deteriorating relationship with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAmid South Africa\u2019s alignment with China, Russia and Iran, its anti-Israel lawfare and systemic corruption, the Trump administration has taken steps to isolate Pretoria,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It includes suspending financial assistance in February, expelling SA\u2019s US ambassador Ebrahim Rasool<\/a>, and potentially kicking SA out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n A clear sign of the deteriorating relationship between South Africa and the United States was in full display earlier this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In March 2025, the United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent skipped the first Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers\u2019 meeting in Cape Town, South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last week, he sent Michael Kaplan, Under Secretary for International Affairs at the Treasury, to attend in his place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThese moves reflect South Africa\u2019s pariah-like status in Washington,\u201d Meizlish wrote in his Wall Street Journal column.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He added that the next phase from the United States will likely involve harsher economic penalties, including tariffs and sanctions against some individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On 14 April 2025, President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed<\/a> Mcebisi Jonas as a \u2018special envoy\u2019 to the United States after Washington booted Rasool in March 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn this capacity, Jonas is entrusted with the responsibility to advance South Africa’s diplomatic, trade and bilateral priorities,\u201d Ramaphosa said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cHe will lead negotiations, foster strategic partnerships and engage with U.S. government officials and private-sector leaders to promote our nation\u2019s interests.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, soon after Jonas was named as the person to lead the restoration of relations between South Africa and the US, a five-year-old video of Jonas surfaced online.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the video, the former deputy finance minister called Trump a racist homophobe, placing doubt over his suitability for the role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the bubbling controversy, Ramaphosa defended his appointment of Jonas and has reassured South Africa that he would be able to do the job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Not much has transpired since this appointment, and President Trump recently announced 30% tariffs on all South African products exported to the United States from 1 August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Democratic Alliance (DA) claimed<\/a> that Jonas was rejected by Washington months ago and that Ramaphosa knew for months that Jonas was not welcome in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The DA said that the United States denied Jonas\u2019 application for a diplomatic visa in May 2025, and that the US government formally rejected his credentials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The South African Presidency hit back<\/a>, accusing the DA of disinformation on matters of international relations and diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThey have no business in the appointment or work of envoys, including that of Jonas,\u201d said presidential spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spokesperson for the Minister of International Relations and Co-Operation, Chrispin Phiri, accused the DA of acting against South Africa\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He added that the tariff issue was not unique to South Africa, and is being handled by the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, Rapport reported<\/a> that a US official said it was challenging to negotiate with South Africa as it had virtually no presence in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another person in Washington, who deals with South African organisations, also said the United States government has not had anyone to speak to from the South African government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meizlish said, considering all these factors, markets around the world continue to underprice South Africa\u2019s growing risk profile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cCompanies, investors and compliance teams still treat it like a typical emerging market: a little unstable and volatile but ultimately manageable. That assumption is wrong,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He highlighted that the changing view of South Africa in Washington is bigger than any one official.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAs the ANC drifts closer to authoritarian powers, the entire system becomes exposed,\u201d Meizlish wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He warned that state-owned enterprises, large energy and telecommunications companies, and the broader financial sector could face sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSouth African banks risk losing access to the dollar. Chinese and European firms could face secondary sanctions. Seemingly safe supply chains could be caught in the crossfire,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He warned business leaders against taking the South African government\u2019s reassurances at face value, as they will only be misinformed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThey will be mispricing risks with serious reputational, regulatory and financial consequences,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He pointed to increased corruption and political instability, with numerous top officials implicated in various forms of malfeasance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cNo serious investor can ignore what that portends for the rule of law and institutional risk,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe risk is real. Wall Street is still pricing in business as usual while South Africa edges toward collapse.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Max Meizlish, senior research analyst for the Centre on Economic and Financial Power, warns that a reckoning is coming for South Africa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":807568,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[23167,1293,10849,23166,22292,23168],"class_list":["post-832177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government","tag-centre-on-economic-and-financial-power","tag-cyril-ramaphosa","tag-donald-trump","tag-max-meizlish","tag-mcebisi-jonas","tag-michael-kaplan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=832177"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":832183,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832177\/revisions\/832183"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/807568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=832177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=832177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=832177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Problems with the special envoy to the United States<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mcebisi-Jonas-1024x576.jpg\")
<\/a>The market underprices South Africa\u2019s growing risk profile<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Max-Meizlish-1024x576.jpg\")
<\/a>