{"id":833202,"date":"2025-07-28T12:01:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T10:01:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=833202"},"modified":"2025-08-08T08:56:15","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T06:56:15","slug":"emigration-shock-as-thousands-more-south-africans-expected-to-leave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/lifestyle\/833202\/emigration-shock-as-thousands-more-south-africans-expected-to-leave\/","title":{"rendered":"Emigration shock as thousands more South Africans expected to leave"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stats SA has published its latest mid-year population estimates for 2025, which show that the South African population has reached 63.1 million, despite thousands of people expected to leave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the data shows net immigration for South Africa, its estimates for emigration among white South Africans has climbed from 84,308 in 2024, to 94,898 in 2025\u2014an additional 10,500 people out the door.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Stats SA, the country\u2019s population grew by approximately 772,291 individuals, marking a 1.23% increase from July 2024 to July 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data reveals that over half of the population is female (51.1%), totalling around 32.2 million people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Provincial population estimates indicate that Gauteng remains the most populous province with over 16 million residents. KwaZulu-Natal follows with a population of 12.2 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Together, these two provinces account for about 45% of South Africa\u2019s total population, pushing up to 57% when including the Western Cape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, the Northern Cape is the least populated province, housing 1.4 million people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYPE) provide critical demographic indicators of recovery, including death rates and growth rates, following the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Covid-19 pandemic had a huge impact on the population. Stats SA recorded anomalous deaths in 2021 and 2022, which impacted data for those years and subsequent estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, the crude death rate (CDR), which measures the annual rate of deaths per 1,000 people, peaked at 11.1 in 2021 during the height of the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Death peaked in 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, exceeding even the HIV pandemic peak of 2006.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, deaths declined by 6.4%, but remained anomalously high. This declined a further 14.4% by 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By 2024, the CDR had significantly declined to 8.7, reflecting the positive impact of Covid-19 interventions. In 2025, the CDR ticked higher to 8.8, in line with pre-Covid rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, the estimated annual population growth rate fell to 1.06% in 2020\u20132021 due to the surge in Covid-19 deaths and a drop in immigration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it rebounded to 1.33% by 2024, it fell to 1.23% in 2025, with Stats SA remarking that it is yet to return to pre-Covid levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Thousands of South Africans are leaving<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Demographically, all of South Africa’s population groups are growing, except white South Africans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The black African population increased by 0.2%, the coloured population grew by 0.1% and the Indian\/Asian population rose by 1.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the white South African population declined by 0.9% over the same period, now representing only 7.1% of the population (down from 7.2% in 2024, also a consistent decline over the years).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, similar trends are recorded in Stats SA’s migration estimates, which show that almost 100,000 white South Africans are expected to have left the country by 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taking into account the estimate period includes the Covid-19 years (2021-2026), net migration into South Africa has slowed to around 870,000 people coming into the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The net positive migration is led by Africans, where Stats SA estimates 903,697 black Africans entering the country by 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Asian population is also expected to gain over 56,000 people through immigration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the white population is expected to see 94,898 people migrate out of the country over the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tracking data from 1985 through to 2026, Stats SA’s data shows negative migration patterns for white South Africans in the thousands for each five-year period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Approximately 203,000 white South Africans emigrated between 1985 and 2000<\/a>, and 99,574 left between 2001 and 2006, followed by 106,787 between 2006 and 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The emigration pattern peaked at 111,346 from this demographic emigrating between 2011 and 2016, to an estimated 90,957 people emigrating between 2016 and 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it has started rising again, increasing to 94,898 emigrants between 2021 and 2026, despite the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stats SA noted that migration estimates are incredibly difficult to track and monitor, given that international migration surveillance systems have failed to accurately account for the number of international migrants entering the country\u2019s borders, either through land, sea, or air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It clarified that the migration patterns in each five year period track assumptions against census data and birth\/death estimates, not tracking actual migrant stock, which it has no data for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The statistics body attempted to give a clearer indication of migration trends in a 2024 report, using data from the United Nations Migrant Stock report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mid-2024 update to the UN’s estimates shows that over 1 million South Africans are currently living abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Stats SA’s latest population estimates show a marked increase in the number of South Africans expected to emigrate by next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":815625,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9876],"tags":[23239,1809],"class_list":["post-833202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lifestyle","tag-population-estimate","tag-stats-sa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=833202"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833202\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":834383,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833202\/revisions\/834383"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/815625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=833202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=833202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=833202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}