South Africa\u2019s economy probably expanded for a third successive quarter, buoyed by recoveries in the key manufacturing and mining sectors, although US tariffs now pose a fresh challenge to growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts polled by Bloomberg from 8 to 13 August expect the economy to expand 0.4% when the second quarter gross domestic product is published on 9 September, compared with 0.1% in the prior three months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A bounce back in the manufacturing and mining sectors likely provided a fillip to the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI expect a somewhat better quarter in the second quarter,\u201d said Johan Els, chief economist at Old Mutual Ltd., who is more optimistic than most economists, expecting 0.8% growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf you look at the different sectors \u2014 coming from deepened negative performance in mining, manufacturing, utilities \u2014 all of those sectors have turned around quite significantly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The mining sector likely benefitted from demand-based price surges, Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG in South Africa, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRecently, we\u2019ve seen even the platinum, palladium indicators starting to increase,\u201d possibly pushed up by international customers \u201cbuying upfront, worrying about the tariffs,\u201d Blackmore said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
US President Donald Trump on 7 August imposed varying tariffs on exports from trading partners, disrupting supply chains and threatening global economic growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
For South Africa, he applied a 30% levy, one of the highest in the world, which is expected to weigh on the automotive and agricultural sectors and may impact as many as 30,000 jobs, according to the nation\u2019s trade department.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The tariffs mean growth may not be sustained through the second half of the year and bodes badly for jobs, said Jee-A Van Der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIn the third, fourth quarter, the impact will actually then start to bite,\u201d Van Der Linde said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s quite plausible that employment could remain under pressure in the third and fourth quarters, as businesses come to grip with this new trade environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n