{"id":837232,"date":"2025-09-10T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=837232"},"modified":"2025-09-10T07:06:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T05:06:32","slug":"south-africans-are-still-getting-poorer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/837232\/south-africans-are-still-getting-poorer\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africans are still getting poorer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

South Africa has seen a jump in GDP, but the rise is still insufficient to halt the country’s per capita recession. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stats SA\u2019s<\/a> latest data for the second quarter of 2025 showed that South Africa saw 0.8% GDP growth, beating already bullish expectations from economists.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year-on-year, growth stood at 0.6%, and a 6-month-on-6-month analysis showed 0.7% growth for the comparable periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seven of the ten manufacturing divisions reported favourable growth rates, with mining and manufacturing the most significant contributors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mining and quarrying industry increased by 3.7%, contributing 0.2 of a percentage point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The manufacturing industry increased by 1.8%, contributing 0.2 of a percentage point to GDP growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The headline figure from Stats SA was better than many economists expected, with economists polled by Reuters expecting GDP to inch up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nedbank economists estimated growth of 0.6% qoq, having accurately predicted rebounds from\u00a0mining and manufacturing, which had stunted growth in the prior quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the overall figures mark an improvement from the weak 0.1% expansion seen in the first quarter of the year, the pace of growth remains insufficient to meet the nation\u2019s population growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Africa\u2019s population grows at around 1.5% per year, meaning that anything less than this is insufficient for individual wealth growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means South Africa is facing a per capita recession, meaning that South Africans are getting poorer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe GDP print confirms that the economy is showing resilience in the face of global and domestic challenges,\u201d said Maarten Ackerman, Chief Economist at Citadel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHowever, annual growth of just 0.6% is still about one percentage point below population growth, highlighting the structural constraints preventing SA from reaching its true potential.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

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Source: Stats SA<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n
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Source: Stats SA<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The rest of 2025 doesn\u2019t look much better, with Thanda Sithole, FNB Senior Economist, expecting growth of 1.0% for 2025. This should then improve gradually to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the US tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on projections, growth is supported by a low inflation environment, cumulative interest rate cuts and structural reforms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sithole added that sectoral dynamics also provide resilience as automotive sales remain strong, which is supported by lower borrowing costs and rising demand for entry-level brands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture also benefits from favourable weather and increased machinery investment, while mining and manufacturing show signs of early recovery. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that trade continues to expand, reflecting improving consumer fundamentals and wage growth outpacing inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ackerman cautioned that while South Africa has clear pockets of resilience, unlocking a sustained recovery depends on the decisive implementation of structural reforms and policies encouraging private-sector participation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUntil we see a turnaround in investment, budgets will remain tight and ratings agencies unconvinced,\u201d Ackerman said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ackerman is optimistic that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has room to consider a rate cut later this month and in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This comes amid weak growth, inflation remaining at the lower end of the official 3% to 6% target range, and the US Federal Reserve\u2019s decision to start cutting rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Africa’s GDP data for Q2 2025 may have surpassed expectations, but South Africa still needs stronger growth to further boost growth. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":777912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[11282,76,1809],"class_list":["post-837232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-opinion","tag-citadel","tag-fnb","tag-stats-sa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/837232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=837232"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/837232\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":837237,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/837232\/revisions\/837237"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/777912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=837232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=837232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=837232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}