{"id":837426,"date":"2025-09-12T10:09:49","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T08:09:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=837426"},"modified":"2025-09-12T10:11:36","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T08:11:36","slug":"bad-news-for-petrol-prices-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/837426\/bad-news-for-petrol-prices-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad news for petrol prices in October"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Petrol price recoveries are still building for a hike at the pumps in October, but the rand is getting stronger and oil is getting cheaper, which could tip the scales in motorists’ favour by month’s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Data from the Central Energy Fund for the end of the second week in September show fuel price recoveries still in the red for petrol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the CEF, petrol prices are building for a 13 to 21 cents per litre hike at this stage, with diesel looking to come down by 9 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While diesel price recoveries are more positive, they have reduced from 22 cents per litre start at the end of the first week of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Petrol price recoveries, meanwhile, have improved by about 8 cents per litre since the start of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are the projected levels at the end of the second week of September:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Petrol 93:\u00a0<\/strong>increase<\/mark> of 11 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Petrol 95:<\/strong>\u00a0increase<\/mark> of 19 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0decrease<\/mark> of 9 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0decrease<\/mark> of 9 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Illuminating paraffin:\u00a0<\/strong>decrease<\/mark> of 12 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The main contributor to the under-recovery for petrol and over-recovery for diesel is the global oil price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This factors into the cost of international product prices used to refine petrol\u2014which are slightly higher\u2014feeding into the under-recovery in the basic fuel price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oil has been fluctuating in a small range of between $62 and $67 a barrel since the start of August, with Brent Crude flat at around $66 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The commodity has been generally weaker in 2025 amid dampening demand due to global tariffs, while supplies have been swelling thanks to OPEC+ increasing output to the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Bloomberg, while geopolitical disruptions could affect the supply side, this has mostly been countered by a worsening market outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it now sees an even larger record oil surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from rivals grows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, US economic data showed a surge in jobless claims, adding to concerns that the labour market in the world\u2019s largest economy is weakening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oil traders are broadly grappling with the balance between geopolitical risks and rising supplies, which has kept prices trapped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOn the one hand, we have this surplus emerging in the market,\u201d Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the IEA, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. \u201cBut we\u2019re also seeing the risk to supply.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the contribution of oil to local fuel prices is mixed for petrol and diesel, there is a positive outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts at Citigroup said that the market is caught in a \u201ctug-of-war between increasingly bearish fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risks.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the bank reaffirmed its forecasts for Brent to drop into the low $60s by year-end and into 2026, which should contribute to lower local pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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