{"id":837646,"date":"2025-09-16T09:51:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T07:51:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=837646"},"modified":"2025-09-16T09:53:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T07:53:49","slug":"here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-october-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/837646\/here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-october-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Here is the expected petrol price for October"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Mid-month estimates based on data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to mixed expectations for fuel prices in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the latest fuel recoveries data, petrol prices are still on track for a small increase next month, with an under-recovery of 8 to 16 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel, meanwhile, should be heading for a small cut, with an over-recovery of around 9 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recoveries are based on the movements in the rand\/dollar exchange rate and the movement in international petroleum product prices, influenced mainly by global oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the rand is trading stronger against the dollar and contributing to an over-recovery in local fuel prices, international product prices have been trending upwards, pushing into an under-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at mid-month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:&nbsp;<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 8 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 16 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 10 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 9 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:&nbsp;<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 14 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Price-movements-Mid-Spet-2025.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"947\" height=\"152\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Price-movements-Mid-Spet-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-837650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Price-movements-Mid-Spet-2025.jpg 947w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Price-movements-Mid-Spet-2025-300x48.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Price-movements-Mid-Spet-2025-768x123.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 947px) 100vw, 947px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stronger rand is helping<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The main contributor to a better outcome for local fuel prices is the rand, which has proven to be surprisingly resilient against the dollar during what was expected to be a highly volatile period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While still trading some way off from its fair value of around R16\/$, the rand had not crashed as many had expected when the 30% trade tariff hit South Africa in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, the local unit has come out stronger in the face of a weaker dollar, with the US Fed&#8217;s latest indications that it will cut interest rates this month helping the rand along further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After being stuck on a relatively narrow range between R17.50 and R17.80\/$ since August, the rand finally broke through the R17.50 resistance level and moved towards nine-month highs of R17.30\/$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand is currently trading at R17.32 to the dollar, as markets await the US interest rate cuts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, the rand&#8217;s strength is largely tied to dollar weakness, not any inherent qualities. This is evidenced by the unit&#8217;s lack of strength against other currencies like the euro or British pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak economic fundamentals\u2014including low growth, high unemployment and poor policy and slow reforms\u2014are keeping the rand generally weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless, the over-performance relative to last month has led to an over-recovery in fuel prices of 9 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Exchange-rate-mid-sept-2025.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"935\" height=\"294\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Exchange-rate-mid-sept-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-837649\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Exchange-rate-mid-sept-2025.jpg 935w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Exchange-rate-mid-sept-2025-300x94.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Exchange-rate-mid-sept-2025-768x241.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 935px) 100vw, 935px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil prices are mixed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The main driver of the mixed outlook for local fuel prices is the international product basket price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This basket is mainly influenced by the global oil price, but also factors in other market dynamics which influence the basic fuel price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In July and August, this was seen in the petrol and diesel prices diverging, as a wider global diesel supply crunch caused diesel prices to surge, while petrol prices came down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past month or so, diesel prices have regularised, and they continue to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices continue to trade in a tight range, having hovered around the $66 a barrel mark for the past month or so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier in September, prices moved lower to under $65 a barrel, but have since risen back to $67 a barrel. This narrow trading is reflected in recoveries through the small swings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For petrol prices, this is contributing to a bigger under-recovery of between 16 and 25 cents per litre. For diesel, the result is flat at 0 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg, global oil prices have been caught between heightened geopolitical tensions and the faster-than-scheduled return of OPEC+ supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has prompted the International Energy Agency to forecast a record glut next year, which should keep prices low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Product-prices-mid-sept-2025.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"939\" height=\"322\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Product-prices-mid-sept-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-837648\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Product-prices-mid-sept-2025.jpg 939w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Product-prices-mid-sept-2025-300x103.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Product-prices-mid-sept-2025-768x263.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 939px) 100vw, 939px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>This is how the price changes will reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Inland<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>September Official<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>October Expected<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>93 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R21.47<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R21.55<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>95 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R21.55<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R21.71<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R19.44<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R19.34<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R19.47<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R19.38<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Illuminating Paraffin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R13.10<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R12.96<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Coastal<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>September Official<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>October Expected<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>93 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.68<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R20.76<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>95 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.72<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R20.88<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.61<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R18.51<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.71<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R18.62<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Illuminating Paraffin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R12.09<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R11.95<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mid-month estimates based on data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to mixed expectations for fuel prices in October.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":821002,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,18450,2171],"class_list":["post-837646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-oil-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/837646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=837646"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/837646\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":837657,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/837646\/revisions\/837657"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/821002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=837646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=837646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=837646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}