{"id":839219,"date":"2025-10-07T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=839219"},"modified":"2025-10-07T10:29:44","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T08:29:44","slug":"eskom-tariff-hikes-undone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/839219\/eskom-tariff-hikes-undone\/","title":{"rendered":"Eskom tariff hikes undone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A new analysis of Eskom’s demand profiles shows that the power utility’s steep tariff increases in 2025 are being undone by a concomitant drop in demand, as customers flee to find alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan, an analysis of Eskom’s diurnal demand profile between June and September 2025 shows that the utility’s price hikes have changed customer behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A diurnal demand profile looks at night and day demand, or over 24 hours, and typically forms a ‘duck’ curve. This shows climbing demand in the morning, a trough in the afternoon, and a peak in the evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While this shape has been holding over the years, the analysis shows that the ‘duck’ is getting smaller as user demand drops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The June 2025 profile shows a drop in demand compared to 2023 and 2024, driven primarily by the introduction of Eskom’s direct price increases from 1 April 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The vast majority of Eskom’s domestic customers are low-level pre-paid consumers who enjoy lower tariff increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, most South African households are served by municipal power and would not yet have seen the tariff increases that were to be implemented on 1 July 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Power demand in June 2025 was impacted by the Eskom direct price hike that kicked in from 1 April, but not by much.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

However, the demand profile shifted sharply in August and September 2025, due to the introduction of Eskom’s Retail Tariff Plan and higher municipal tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared to three months earlier, the September demand reflected a rapid acceleration in the drop in average demand, Jordaan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The change was down 1.3% between 2023 and 2024. Over the past year, however, September’s average demand plummeted by 9.1%<\/strong> from 25.36 GW in 2024 to 23.05 GW in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The high winter tariffs are lowered on 1 September. Normally, by the second week in September, we would see a marked increase in demand as the industrial and agricultural sectors restart production for the festive season,” Jordaan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This demand surge was absent in 2025 and could indicate lower industrial activity.”<\/p>\n\n\n

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Demand for Eskom power is consistently lower throughout the day, as South Africans find a way to avoid higher prices and seek out alternatives<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

When using 2019 as a baseline, it is clear that demand for Eskom power has been declining, and that 2025 reflects a significant departure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By June 2025, noon demand shifted lower by 10% (2.9 GW) from the pre-pandemic baseline of 29.75 GW. This compares to a 5.5% drop for 2023 and a 6.7% drop for 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By September 2025, the noon demand had shifted lower by 18.4% (5.2 GW) from the pre-pandemic baseline of 28.32 GW. This compares to a 4.9% drop by 2023 and a 6.7% drop by 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jordaan said that the overall average shift of -3.4 GW represents a decrease in demand of 12.9% for September 2025 over 2019 and a -8.7% year-on-year drop.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The analysis shows that Eskom’s restructuring of its Retail Tariffs has cost it 8.7% in demand destruction<\/strong> in September 2025,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Should one add inflation at 4.5%, it means Eskom’s tariff increase of 12.7% has now been more than nixed, in real terms<\/strong>.”<\/p>\n\n\n

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South Africans have changed their consumption habits dramatically, with solar, battery and gas power creating new troughs in demand.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

South Africans are looking for alternatives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A notable change in the demand profiles is the emergence of a second ‘drop’ in the evenings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Normally, a diurnal demand shift would be represented by a single even trough from 07h00 to 17h00 on any given day with level flanks from 01h00 to 07h00 and 17h00 to 00h00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This reflects a fairly typical demand profile where Eskom would experience a morning and evening ‘peak’ as power users wake up and get ready for work, or return home and settle in for the evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the day, while people are at work, energy demand dips low, creating a trough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, however, a second, smaller trough has been observed from 18h00 to 00h00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jordaan said this is likely due to households shifting to gas for cooking and heating, and battery power stored during the day from solar to use for less demanding applications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom demand tanking after electricity price hikes<\/h2>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/a>
After the Pandemic, demand stabilised 0.5 GW lower at 26 GW for two years. From mid-2023, demand plummeted by 1.5 GW, due to tariff hikes.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Renewable energy is trending upwards<\/h2>\n\n\n
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Demand for renewable energy generation has trended upwards since 2019. This is reflective of Eskom and IPP installed renewables, not rooftop solar and other small-scale private generation, which is estimated at about 7.3GW.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new analysis of Eskom’s demand profiles shows that the power utility’s steep tariff increases in 2025 are being undone by a drop in demand, as customers flee to find alternatives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":736289,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[1164,17989],"class_list":["post-839219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-eskom","tag-pieter-jordaan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=839219"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839219\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":839254,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839219\/revisions\/839254"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/736289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=839219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=839219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=839219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}