{"id":839991,"date":"2025-10-15T11:10:38","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T09:10:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=839991"},"modified":"2025-11-14T09:09:49","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T07:09:49","slug":"here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-november-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/839991\/here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-november-8\/","title":{"rendered":"Here is the expected petrol price for November"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to fuel price cuts across the board in November, despite the recent weakening of the rand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After starting the month on the front foot, petrol prices have recovered further over the past two weeks, while diesel has firmed its positive momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices are showing a strong over-recovery in prices of between 58 and 61 cents per litre, putting drivers in line for a sizeable cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel prices are also showing an over-recovery, albeit smaller, at around 26 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, both the rand\/dollar exchange rate and the shift in global petroleum product prices are contributing to the over-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is in contrast to September, where the global price of oil and market dynamics in that sector undercut the rand&#8217;s relative strength against the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at mid-month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 61 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 58 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 26 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 26 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:&nbsp;<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 12 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Mid-month-Oct-analysis.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"165\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Mid-month-Oct-analysis-1024x165.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-839996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Mid-month-Oct-analysis-1024x165.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Mid-month-Oct-analysis-300x48.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Mid-month-Oct-analysis-768x124.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Mid-month-Oct-analysis.jpg 1482w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rand volatility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has continued its resilience against the dollar over the past few months, surprising markets in the face of tense trade relations and the imposition of higher tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the rand appears to be strong, economists have noted that the local unit is actually flat when looking at its trades against other major currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The real drive behind the rand&#8217;s strength has been the US dollar&#8217;s weakness, with the greenback depreciating around 13% this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that the rand\/dollar exchange remains highly sensitive to moves in the US economy\u2014something that has been reflected this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has had a great October, even pushing towards R17.00\/$ at some point. But this reversed slightly as the US government shut down, and local data pointed to strained industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most recently, the rand showed some strength again as the US Fed pointed to more interest rate cuts in the world&#8217;s biggest economy, all the while being bolstered by commodities like gold, which lifted in price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reflecting the rand&#8217;s sensitivity to the US market, the rand has been trading in a wide range, dipping as low as R17.07\/$ and climbing as high as R17.50\/$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, analysts have noted that with gold and platinum prices surging higher and South Africa&#8217;s terms of trade as strong as ever, there is a high probability that the rand will regain its footing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means trading stronger in the coming weeks, or even attempting another push to cross the R17.00\/$ level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Exchange-rate-mid-Oct-2025.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"338\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Exchange-rate-mid-Oct-2025-1024x338.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-839995\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Exchange-rate-mid-Oct-2025-1024x338.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Exchange-rate-mid-Oct-2025-300x99.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Exchange-rate-mid-Oct-2025-768x254.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Exchange-rate-mid-Oct-2025.jpg 1463w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil prices fall<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A big turn for local fuel price recoveries has been the declining price of oil, which has been on a slow downward trajectory, despite trading in a tight range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the start of the month, oil dipped below $65 a barrel and has since continued to drop, currently trading at around $62.40.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The drop in oil has come amid escalating trade tensions between China and the US, which diminished demand for risky assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is happening alongside estimates from the International Energy Agency of a record crude surplus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEA increased its forecast for an unprecedented oversupply of oil for 2026, noting that worldwide crude supplies will exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The projected supply surplus is up roughly 18% from last month\u2019s estimate, as the OPEC+ alliance continues to revive output and the outlook for the group\u2019s rivals strengthens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Several executives from major oil trading houses said they see crude prices falling from here, Bloomberg reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding to the mix, indications from the US Fed reinforced speculation that the US is on track to cut rates in October amid a weakening labour market, also impacting forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil already posted losses in August and September, and while the impact on local recoveries was mixed over this period, the projection for November appears to point to declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Product-Prices-mid-Oct-2025.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"371\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Product-Prices-mid-Oct-2025-1024x371.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-839994\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Product-Prices-mid-Oct-2025-1024x371.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Product-Prices-mid-Oct-2025-300x109.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Product-Prices-mid-Oct-2025-768x278.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Product-Prices-mid-Oct-2025.jpg 1470w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>This is how the price changes are expected to change (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Inland<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>October Official<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>November Expected<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>93 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R21.48<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.87<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>95 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R21.63<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R21.05<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R19.34<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R19.08<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R19.39<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R19.13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Illuminating Paraffin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R12.99<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R12.87<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Coastal<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>October Official<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>November Expected<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>93 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.69<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.08<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>95 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.80<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.22<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.51<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.63<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.37<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Illuminating Paraffin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R11.98<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R11.86<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to fuel price cuts across the board in November, despite the recent weakening of the rand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":665025,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,22148,4068,22860,2923,3670],"class_list":["post-839991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-prices","tag-dollar","tag-oil-prices","tag-petrol-prices","tag-rand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=839991"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":843170,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839991\/revisions\/843170"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/665025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=839991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=839991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=839991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}