{"id":841697,"date":"2025-11-04T09:12:33","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T07:12:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=841697"},"modified":"2025-11-04T09:12:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T07:12:38","slug":"the-four-provinces-in-south-africa-that-escaped-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/841697\/the-four-provinces-in-south-africa-that-escaped-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"The four provinces in South Africa that escaped recession"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Four provinces in South Africa have escaped a technical recession after experiencing contractions in the first quarter of 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The North West, Mpumalanga, Limpopo and Gauteng all saw quarter-on-quarter contractions in the first quarter of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, they managed to reverse this in the second quarter, showing quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.8% or above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Q2 2025, South Africa\u2019s GDP expanded by a surprising 0.8% following muted growth of 0.1% in Q1 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contractions.\u00a0It is a short-hand economic metric used to indicate the general health of an economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A full recession is a broader, deeper, and more sustained decline in economic activity, factoring in various factors, including employment levels, revenue trends and more focused productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, a technical recession is measured in short-term data (like quarterly GDP), while a full recession is measured over a much longer term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, while South Africa’s short-term GDP data shows some positive growth, over the long term\u2014like the last decade\u2014it paints a picture of stagnation, not growing above 0.7% on average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Factoring in population growth, which averages between 1.2% and 1.5%, it is clear that even with positive economic growth, the population is getting poorer on a per-capita basis\u2014a form of full recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, escaping a technical recession is still a positive thing and gives some breathing room to the four provinces that were at high risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Eastern Cape Socio-Economic Consultative Council, improvements from Q1 to Q2 for the four provinces were as follows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Province<\/th>Q1 2025<\/th>Q2 2025<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
North West<\/td>-0.4%<\/td>1.4%<\/td><\/tr>
Mpumalanga<\/td>-0.3%<\/td>1.1%<\/td><\/tr>
Limpopo<\/td>-0.2%<\/td>1.0%<\/td><\/tr>
Gauteng<\/td>-0.1%<\/td>0.8%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Every single province in the country saw quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025, with the Northern Cape (1.0%) and Free State (0.9%) seeing substantial growth over the quarter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After seeing the highest growth (0.5%) in Q1 2025, the Western Cape registered the lowest GDP growth of 0.7% in Q2. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the yearly statistics, the National GDP increased by 0.6 percentage points, rising from 0.3% in 2024Q2 to 0.9% in 2025Q2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth was robust in North West (up by 1.3 percentage points), Mpumalanga (up by 1.0 percentage points), and Limpopo (up by 0.9 of a percentage point). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces recorded more moderate increases of 0.3 of a percentage point over the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

In the right direction, but not enough <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The provincial improvements observed across Q2 2025 are positive news for many following a turbulent 2024, as per Stats SA’s latest data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 1.0% growth seen in Limpopo in Q2 2025 adds to the 0.9% GDP growth seen in the province in 2024 – the last full year of data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Limpopo registered the highest growth rate of 0.9% in 2024, far higher than the national average of 0.5%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Limpopo\u2019s growth was driven by two industries: finance, which includes real estate and business services, and personal services. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other industries in Limpopo that recorded gains include utilities, such as transport & communication, general government, manufacturing and trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gauteng had the subsequent highest growth at 0.8% in 2024, with finance being a major contributor to the province. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 1.3% growth for the North West in Q2 2025 is incredibly positive news, as the province recorded a 0.1% contraction in 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The province was hindered by disappointing trade, agriculture, transportation, construction, manufacturing, and mining figures during the period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Eastern Cape and Northern Cape\u2019s growth in Q2 2025 is also good news, as both economies reported declines in 2024.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although all provinces in South Africa recorded quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025, the situation remains dire, with GDP expected to grow by only around 1.0% in 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the economy grows at this rate, the population is estimated to grow at 1.5%, resulting in a decline in GDP per capita. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essentially, while the pie is getting bigger, there are more people that it needs to feed, meaning that South Africans are getting poorer. <\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n
\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Following economic contractions in the first quarter of the year, four high-risk provinces in South Africa managed to pull it back in the second quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":823373,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[21154,1809],"class_list":["post-841697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-eastern-cape-socio-economic-consultative-council-ecsecc","tag-stats-sa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/841697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=841697"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/841697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":841866,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/841697\/revisions\/841866"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/823373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=841697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=841697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=841697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}