{"id":842323,"date":"2025-11-07T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=842323"},"modified":"2025-11-07T11:49:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T09:49:13","slug":"big-trouble-for-petrol-and-diesel-prices-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/842323\/big-trouble-for-petrol-and-diesel-prices-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Big trouble for petrol and diesel prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After a small cut to fuel prices in November, rising global oil prices are catching up, putting local recoveries on the back foot at the start of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While petrol price recoveries are still positive &#8211; showing a small over-recovery after the first week of the month &#8211; diesel recoveries have completely flipped, showing a significant under-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the first week of the month, petrol prices are showing a small over-recovery of between 3 and 8 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel, meanwhile, is showing a big under-recovery of between 57 and 70 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A clear sign of trouble for prices going forward is that both the exchange rate and movement in international product prices (tied to oil prices) are showing under-recoveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>International product prices are showing a small over-recovery for petrol, but with oil prices trending upward, this also risks swinging into an under-recovery as the month goes on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at the start of November:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:\u00a0<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark> of 8 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong>\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark><\/mark> of 3 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 57 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 70 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:\u00a0<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 68 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It must be noted that indicators at the start of the month are far too early to make any decisive call on what the fuel price changes in December will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it does give a solid indication of what would need to happen in the coming weeks to impact that result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, oil prices would have to drop significantly, or the rand would have to get much stronger against the dollar to balance the recoveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has had a remarkably resilient year against the US dollar, even going as far as testing a break past the R17\/$ resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the rand&#8217;s fortunes have been inextricably tied to the weakness of the dollar, rather than to any inherent power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This resilience is now under pressure as the dollar starts regaining lost ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Investec chief economist, Annabel Bishop, the dollar has been on a strengthening trend from mid-September, since the first US interest rate cut this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This bolstered investor sentiment, while the US shutdown\u2014which kicked in from 1 October\u2014has added to the support for the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Commodity currencies like the rand found support from higher risk appetite, which carried through to October, but this is weaker in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Commodity prices are ticking lower, particularly for metals and minerals, but commodities in general are seeing weakness, along with their currencies, Bishop said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market sentiment has also lost momentum since the US Fed highlighted that interest rate cuts at every meeting cannot be relied on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the rand has been trading weaker against the dollar, moving from a range between R17.20 and R17.30\/$, to a higher range between R17.30 and R17.40\/$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil prices climb higher<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Oil-barrels.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Oil-barrels-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-840916\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Oil-barrels-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Oil-barrels-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Oil-barrels-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Oil-barrels.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The real driver for lower recoveries\u2014for diesel in particluar\u2014is higher oil pricing, where crude has been trading in a wide range for the past month or so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite heading for a weekly decline of about 2%, Brent crude moved towards $64 a barrel\u2014a far reach from the sub-$60 levels seen in early October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global benchmark Brent has lost 15% this year, with the International Energy Agency predicting record oversupply in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil producers&#8217; (OPEC+) output rose slightly last month, as key members restarted supplies, adding to production increases in other nations, including Brazil and the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, threats to flows from Russia \u2014 the second-biggest oil exporter \u2014 have provided some upside to the pricing, keeping futures at elevated levels, relative to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While oil prices trend higher, the impact on diesel is more pronounced due to season effects\u2014such as higher demand for the fuel in the northern hemisphere during winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This, and other factors, lead to significant deviations between petrol and diesel when it comes to recoveries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The positive news for motorists is that oil prices are still expected to decline, with analysts projecting an average of $62 a barrel in for the fourth quater of the year, and even lower (mid-$50s) in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the shorter-term fluctuations will still be felt in local recorveries, with the start of the month pointing to trouble ahead for local prices in December.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a cut to fuel prices in November, rising global oil prices are catching up, putting local recoveries on the back foot at the start of the month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":811755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,4531,2923],"class_list":["post-842323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel","tag-petrol-prices"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=842323"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842323\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":842324,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842323\/revisions\/842324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/811755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=842323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=842323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=842323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}