{"id":844127,"date":"2025-11-21T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=844127"},"modified":"2025-11-21T11:35:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T09:35:15","slug":"bad-to-worse-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/844127\/bad-to-worse-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad to worse for petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Fuel price recoveries in South Africa have deteriorated since mid-month projections, with diesel prices looking at a particularly hefty hike in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Data from the Central Energy Fund for the end of the third week in November shows that fuel price recoveries have pushed deeper into the negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Petrol prices are showing an under-recovery of between 20 and 25 cents per litre, and diesel prices are showing a much steeper under-recovery of between 76 and 93 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At mid-month, things were looking slightly better, with petrol and diesel recoveries deteriorating by around 6 and 10 cents per litre, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are the projected levels at week three:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Petrol 93:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of 20 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Petrol 95:<\/strong> increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 25 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 76 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 93 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Illuminating paraffin:\u00a0<\/strong>increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 84 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Despite the rand averaging much stronger than in October, rising global fuel prices are undercutting the gains on the exchange rate front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand\/dollar exchange rate, which saw the rand briefly dip below the R17.00 level, is currently contributing to an over-recovery of 3 to 4 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Coming off the back of a solid and credible medium-term budget review and a wave of positive sentiment around South Africa’s economic prospects, the rand strengthened around the middle of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This was aided by weakness in the US dollar, which has long been the driver of the rand’s fortunes this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand managed to break the R17.00\/$ resistance level to trade at R16.97 very briefly, before pulling back. The dollar strengthened at the end of the United States’ prolonged government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Friday, the rand retreated further to R17.28 to the dollar as investors dumped riskier assets in the wake of delayed US data that failed to give direction on the US Fed’s interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the retreat, the rand remains resilient and is trading stronger relative to October. However, this resilience is not enough to counter the movement in international product prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This aspect of the equation is currently contributing to an under-recovery of between 23 and 28 cents per litre for petrol and between 80 and 97 cents per litre for diesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The differences in recoveries for petrol and diesel are typically associated with differing demand patterns. Notably, diesel is in greater demand in the norther hemisphere in the winter months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Trump-Putin-1024x576.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Trump-Putin.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n