{"id":844411,"date":"2025-11-27T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=844411"},"modified":"2025-11-27T15:10:14","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T13:10:14","slug":"adrian-gore-warns-about-a-simple-error-which-could-cause-serious-problems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/844411\/adrian-gore-warns-about-a-simple-error-which-could-cause-serious-problems\/","title":{"rendered":"Adrian Gore warns about a simple error which could cause serious problems"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Discovery CEO Adrian Gore said that leaders should recognise that a small group of highly productive individuals can make a significant difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, a small group of people can also negatively impact a system and cause significant damage in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gore shared his thoughts about the issue in the March 2022 issue of The Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (SEIFSA) magazine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the article titled, We Need to Let Go of the Bell Curve, Gore highlighted the impact of the Pareto distribution, also known as the \u201c80-20 rule\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He described how 21% of Discovery Bank\u2019s new cardholders account for 80% of spending. This worried one of the senior managers greatly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHe wondered what we could do to spread our lending book more evenly,\u201d Gore said in his article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ve had similar conversations with the fundraising manager of a non-profit I chair. The bulk of the funding comes from 20 donors, which she said is unsustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She was concerned that the organisation was heading toward a cliff because such a small group makes up most of the revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gore warned that both of these reactions reveal a common cognitive error that has profound implications for leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The foundation of this cognitive error is that most people believe human activities follow a normal distribution, also known as a Gaussian curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For most physical attributes, this is the case, with a more frequent occurrence near the mean than far away from the mean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most people will have IQ scores around the mean of 100, with very few individuals recording scores that are significantly far away from the mean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average height of an American male is 5\u20199&#8243;, and 50% of the population has a height within 2 inches of this mean. However, only 2% are shorter than 5\u20191 or taller than 6\u20194.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this is not the case for human activities. It follows a Pareto distribution instead of a Gaussian curve.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-19.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"1000\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-19.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-844413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-19.jpg 640w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-19-192x300.jpg 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pareto distribution and human activity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed that 80% of the country\u2019s wealth was concentrated in the hands of only 20% of the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He developed a power-law probability distribution to describe systems where a small number of events account for a large proportion of the total outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This distribution is observed worldwide in economics, insurance, technology, business, and even in forest fires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gore said for many companies, 80% of revenue and profits typically come from 20% of products and services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In healthcare, the sickest 20% of patients generate 79% of healthcare costs. Within this 20%, the sickest 20% account for 60% of the total costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With many human activities following the 80-20 rule, Gore urged leaders to recalibrate their perspective from a normal distribution to a Pareto distribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe realisation that we live in a largely Pareto world\u2014which is inherently unfair, asymmetric, and unpredictable\u2014may feel unpleasant at first,\u201d Gore said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the upside is that making a change will have a much faster and bigger impact than people realise. The practical implications of this perspective are profound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn Pareto distributions, a small change in one variable is associated with a large change in another,\u201d Gore said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA few key decisions, from whom we marry to what careers we choose, end up having an enormous impact on our future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the business world and the government, the impact can be profound. Hiring exceptional people can transform a system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gore advised leaders to recruit and retain the best possible people across the board. \u201cCreate an A+ team to leverage A+ players\u2019 impact,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cConsistently attracting and retaining exceptional talent across the entire organisation will lift the entire talent curve.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pareto principle in sport<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It can be challenging to track the performance of individuals in a business and accurately quantify their impact on the organisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it is much easier in sports. The Professional Darts Corporation\u2019s (PDC\u2019s) Order of Merit provides a great example of the Pareto principle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The PDC Order of Merit is based on prize money won over two years by players in ranking tournaments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Between 2024 and 2025, the top 20 players in the PDC Order of Merit earned \u00a312.8 million in prize money. The remaining 204 players earned only \u00a310.9 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that the 20 best players collectively outperformed the rest of the dart players in terms of prize money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below shows each player\u2019s earnings over the last year. Every bar (line) in the bar chart shows one player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It illustrates that the players on the left, which represent the best performers, had a significant impact. The ones on the right had nearly no impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-13.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"615\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-13-1024x615.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-844414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-13-1024x615.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-13-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-13-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-13.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Discovery CEO Adrian Gore said that leaders should recognise that a small group of highly productive individuals can make a significant difference.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":824314,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[21660,24232,12923,24234,24233,24231],"class_list":["post-844411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-adrian-gore","tag-bell-curve","tag-discovery-bank","tag-normal-distribution","tag-pareto-distribution","tag-the-steel-and-engineering-industries-federation-of-southern-africa-seifsa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/844411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=844411"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/844411\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":844497,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/844411\/revisions\/844497"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/824314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=844411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=844411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=844411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}