{"id":845631,"date":"2025-12-05T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=845631"},"modified":"2025-12-12T10:54:33","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T08:54:33","slug":"bad-news-about-petrol-prices-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/845631\/bad-news-about-petrol-prices-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad news about petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to early signs of a petrol price hike for January 2026, which could start the new year off on a sour note for motorists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Early data on recoveries show that petrol prices could lift around 20 cents per litre in January if current market conditions continue through the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel drivers have more positive prospects, however, with an over-recovery around 48 cents per litre pointing to a possible cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are the recoveries at the start of December:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 20 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark><\/mark> of 20 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"> <\/mark>decrease<\/mark> of 49 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 46 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:&nbsp;<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 26 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Indicators at the start of the month are far too early to make any decisive call on what the fuel price changes in January will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it does give a solid indication of what would need to happen in the coming weeks to impact that result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, oil prices would have to drop, or the rand would have to get stronger to cut through the under-recovery in petrol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As it stands at the start of December, the rand\/dollar exchange rate is working to the benefit of motorists, contributing to an over-recovery of around 8 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this is being undercut by a 28-cent per litre under-recovery in global oil prices for petrol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel prices are showing a 40-cent per litre over-recovery tied to global product prices, but this has to do with global diesel supplies and seasonal demand balancing out from last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>International product prices used in the basic fuel price for diesel spiked relative to petrol in October and November, and are now returning to parity with petrol, leading to the over-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rand flexes as oil stays range-bound<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Donald-Big-Mac-Rand-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Donald-Big-Mac-Rand-2-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-809986\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Donald-Big-Mac-Rand-2-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Donald-Big-Mac-Rand-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Donald-Big-Mac-Rand-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Donald-Big-Mac-Rand-2.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has strengthened considerably this week, pulling below R17.00 to the dollar for the second time in a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The local unit strengthened on Friday (5 December) as the country recorded a smaller-than-expected current account deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This eased pressure on the rand and the government issued dollar-denominated eurobonds for the first time since 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa&#8217;s current account deficit narrowed to 0.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter from 1.0% of GDP in the second quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Johann Els, chief economist at PSG Financial Services, said this was one of the main contributors to the stronger rand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors turned their attention to South Africa&#8217;s net foreign reserves, which rose to $70 billion at the end of November, up from $69 billion in October, according to central bank data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move to under R17\/$ is a continuation of the story of the rand&#8217;s resilience in 2025, which has been a year of local and international political shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite intense trade tariffs from the United States and a messy 2025 budget process, the rand has seen through much of the noise and become uncharacteristically stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The unit is still considered to be undervalued, but improving sentiment and a more positive economic trajectory have helped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More broadly, the global oil price has been subject to many of the same shocks. However, the oil price has been tied to a much tighter range between $63 and $65 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While analysts anticipate a supply glut in 2026 and beyond, pricing has been tempered by geopolitical tensions, such as the United States&#8217; dealings with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasts for the commodity are bearish, with analysts expecting prices to drop as the state of oversupply continues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Early fuel recovery data points to petrol price increases in January 2026, but there&#8217;s good news for diesel, and room for things to change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":840915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,2171],"class_list":["post-845631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/845631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=845631"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/845631\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":846355,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/845631\/revisions\/846355"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/840915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=845631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=845631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=845631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}