{"id":846354,"date":"2025-12-12T11:26:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T09:26:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=846354"},"modified":"2025-12-12T12:24:41","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T10:24:41","slug":"from-bad-to-great-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/846354\/from-bad-to-great-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Big swing for petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the second week of December shows that fuel price recoveries have swung into positive territory across the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a reversal of the rocky start to the month when petrol prices were showing an under-recovery and pointing to a possible hike in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of the second week, petrol price recoveries have turned positive, now showing an over-recovery of between 5 and 7 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The turn for fuel prices is remarkable, given that the data showed an under-recovery of 20 cents per litre just a week ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For diesel, which started the month with a strong over-recovery, this has only extended, with the fuel now showing an over-recovery of between 82 and 88 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are the recoveries at the end of the second week of December:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark> of 5 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark><\/mark> of 7 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"> <\/mark>decrease<\/mark> of 82 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 88 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:\u00a0<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 57 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Indicators at the start of the month are usually too early to make a decisive call on what the fuel price changes will be, which is evident in the big swing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The start of the month reflected resilient but range-bound rand strength versus the dollar, and tensions between the US and Russia kept oil prices fixed around $65 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the week since, the rand has pulled back below R17 to the dollar, hitting its strongest levels since 2023, and the oil price has dropped to below $62 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand strength, in particular, has fully countered the small under-recovery that is still present in the petrol prices due to global oil prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The favourable exchange is adding 12 cents per litre to an over-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices are lower, but still not as low as they were in previous months. For petrol, the movement in prices is still contributing to a 4-6 cents per litre under-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For diesel, due to the balancing of seasonal demand and other factors, the lower oil price is contributing to a significantly higher over-recovery, ranging from 71 to 76 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">From zero to hero<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Donald-trump.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Donald-trump-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-828901\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Donald-trump-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Donald-trump-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Donald-trump-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Donald-trump.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After breaking below R17.00 at the start of the month, the South African rand has fluctuated around the resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It moved back above R17.00\/$ as markets awaited fresh data, but has once again pulled below to hit around R16.84\/$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The gain was aided by the US Fed cutting rates in the United States by 25 basis points and a rally in the gold price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a major producer of precious metals, South Africa often benefits from firmer bullion prices. Markets will be looking ahead to consumer inflation numbers coming next week for the next signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Headline inflation is currently 3.6% in annual terms, and economists in a Reuters poll expect it to remain unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts expect the rand to end the year on a strong note, with the potential to strengthen even further in 2026, thanks to a marked shift in risk sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at oil prices, 2026 is also expected to bring a better turn for fuel pricing, with a supply glut anticipated to persist through 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices have dropped by almost 20% this year due to a forecast of oversupply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to an analysis by Bloomberg, the International Energy Agency is predicting an unprecedented surplus in the new year, with global inventories expected to swell to a four-year high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this is being countered by geopolitical tensions, most notably the ongoing war in Ukraine and the United States&#8217; recent attacks on Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US President Donald Trump announced new sanctions on three of Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro\u2019s nephews, as well as six oil tankers, after the US seized a supertanker off the coast of the Latin American nation this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The ship seizure was just the beginning of a new phase in the Trump administration\u2019s ramped-up pressure campaign against the Venezuelan president, according to people familiar with the operation,&#8221; Bloomberg reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The act of economic statecraft is designed to deny Maduro a lifeline of oil revenue and force him to relinquish power, the people said.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the Venezuela flare-up adds a headline risk premium to oil prices and market volatility, Bloomberg said it doesn\u2019t change the bigger picture of oversupply.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the second week of December shows that fuel price recoveries have swung into positive territory across the board.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":772882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,2171],"class_list":["post-846354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=846354"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846354\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":846374,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846354\/revisions\/846374"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/772882"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=846354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=846354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=846354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}