{"id":847366,"date":"2026-01-07T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=847366"},"modified":"2026-01-07T17:01:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T15:01:17","slug":"dawie-roodt-warns-of-the-one-weapon-the-united-states-can-still-use-against-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/847366\/dawie-roodt-warns-of-the-one-weapon-the-united-states-can-still-use-against-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Dawie Roodt warns of the one weapon the United States can still use against South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Renowned economist Dawie Roodt says that South Africa is incredibly vulnerable to geopolitical alignments and that the United States could use the country’s bonds against it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking to Sakeliga executive director Russell Lamberti about the state of South Africa\u2019s economy in December, Roodt noted that a significant portion of South Africa’s rand-denominated bonds are held by foreign investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, about 20% of these bonds are held by the United States and Europe, making the country particularly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is exacerbated by the ANC-led government’s historical ideological alignment against the “West”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this vulnerability and ideological mismatch, any adverse political event\u2014or something more drastic, such as sanctions against the government and its officials\u2014could see the bonds weaponised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, foreign investors could be forbidden from buying South African bonds, or they could choose to sell them en masse in response to such an event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Someone like US President Donald Trump could also potentially prohibit the purchase of bonds as part of a retaliatory salvo against the country for any number of reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this case, it would lead to a spike in long-term yields and to “a really bad financial crisis”, Roodt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Remember, our local banks hold a lot of bonds as well. On their balance sheet, their yields go up, the value of their assets goes down, and now all of a sudden the banks start getting into trouble,” Roodt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“They may still have the bonds, but the bonds are worth less now, and that means that the banks can eventually get into trouble, and that can lead to a really bad financial crisis.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roodt noted that banks in South Africa are very well capitalised, so it is not an immediate or likely concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he stressed that it remains a potential scenario that could put pressure on the country’s financial system as a whole, especially if the South African government continues its current course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ideologically opposed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

According to Roodt, South Africa’s government, led by the African National Congress (ANC), favours interventionist socialist policies, which stand opposed to the free market principles of the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Government of National Unity (GNU) comprises various parties with differing international positions and views, it’s the ANC’s ideology that is most expressed through official policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These policies align more broadly with the global East (Russia and China in particular), putting it in conflict with the United States and other Western nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the South African government has attempted to present its foreign policy in a neutral and non-aligned tone, its actions do not reflect this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has not gone unnoticed by the United States and the Trump administration in particular, which spent a significant part of 2025 targeting South Africa’s policies and international relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump allies in Congress and the Senate have also taken specific aim at the ANC and party officials, tabling and processing legislation to sanction them<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other ways the US is punishing South Africa include imposing trade tariffs, not budging on trade negotiations, and also looking to exclude it from future AGOA renewals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, while the US still has tools at its disposal to tighten the screws on South Africa, Roodt said the government has managed its foreign-denominated debt (i.e., dollar) relatively well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This debt accounts for only around 13% of total outstanding debt, he said, while the South African Reserve Bank maintains sufficient reserves to pay it off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This gives South Africa a degree of protection from economic clashes, and also sets it apart from many other countries that find themselves in a position where they have too much foreign debt they cannot repay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Let’s give credit where it’s due\u2014typically, what happens with emerging economies like South Africa is they start borrowing a lot of dollars, and then they start spending. That hasn’t happened in South Africa,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he stressed that the country is still vulnerable and open to an external ‘attack’ from the US through the bond market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“That’s the real big stick that can be used against South Africa. What I’m concerned about is exactly that: One day, Donald Trump’s going to say ‘you’re not allowed to buy the South African bonds anymore’,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“That’s going to be really bad for South Africa, and we’re heading for that if we continue like this. We’re heading for a financial crisis.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Renowned economist Dawie Roodt says that South Africa is incredibly vulnerable to geopolitical alignments and that the United States still has one ‘big stick’ it can use against it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":833716,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[1459,10849,10022],"class_list":["post-847366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-opinion","tag-dawie-roodt","tag-donald-trump","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=847366"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":847367,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847366\/revisions\/847367"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/833716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=847366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=847366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=847366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}