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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nRand and oil wins for South Africa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The over-recovery currently building is largely due to the movement in international product prices, driven by global oil prices, adding close to R1 to the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oil prices have come under renewed pressure due to the United States’ attack on Venezuela in which it captured the country’s president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While operating under the pretence of taking on the drug trade, oil has emerged as the key reason for the United States’ action, with the White House moving to secure favourable oil stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With an influx of Venezuelan oil, prices came under pressure heading below $58 a barrel early in the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, this was upended by US threats on Iran and pressure on Russia, applying pressure to supply-side pricing, resulting in an elevated oil price of over $62 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, this is unlikely to make a significant dent in oversupply forecasts, as the market anticipates a glut in 2026. Some analysts predict a continued fall in prices, potentially hitting $50 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cCrude remains caught in a complex dance between heightened geopolitical risk and rising inventory,\u201d said Robert Rennie, the head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corp. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Higher Venezuela flows, and rising output elsewhere, could see prices trading in the $50s through the first quarter, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other side of the local fuel price equation\u2014the rand\/dollar exchange rate\u2014is also favouring motorists, currently contributing around 21 cents per litre to the over-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand has been on a winning streak in the latter months of 2025 and at the start of 2026, delivering its biggest gains in over a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand ended 2025 nearly 13% stronger against the US dollar, marking its biggest annual gain in 16 years as the greenback weakened broadly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While much of the rand’s strength is due to the dollar’s weakness, markets have been drawn to emerging economies and have turned sweet on South Africa in particular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
South Africa’s fundamentals remain weak, with low growth, high unemployment and many policy bottlenecks hampering reform. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, it remains a resilient market and is on an upward trajectory, despite its issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
South Africa\u2019s risk-sensitive currency is also likely to benefit from its exposure to precious metal prices and comparatively lower near-term political risk compared to its peers facing elections in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that fuel price recoveries are building for a significant cut at the pumps in February\u2014if current market conditions continue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":821002,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,2171],"class_list":["post-847450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=847450"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":847464,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847450\/revisions\/847464"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/821002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=847450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=847450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=847450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}