{"id":848656,"date":"2026-01-23T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=848656"},"modified":"2026-01-23T11:11:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T09:11:23","slug":"big-petrol-price-cut-coming-next-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/848656\/big-petrol-price-cut-coming-next-month\/","title":{"rendered":"Big petrol price cut coming next month"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol and diesel users are in for another sizeable price cut at the pumps in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The data, reflecting spot recoveries for the end of the third week in January, shows an over-recovery of between 66 and 69 cents per litre for petrol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For diesel, there is a similar over-recovery of between 63 and 71 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The over-recoveries are weaker than they were at mid-month, reflecting global geopolitical volatility and its impact on oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, both the oil price and the ZAR\/USD exchange rate are still contributing positively to recoveries, keeping motorists in line for cuts next month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at the end of week three:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> decrease of 66 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> decrease of 69 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong>decrease of 63 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> decrease of 71 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong>decrease of 60 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the key drivers of lower recoveries is the rising oil price, which gained this week as the dollar weakened and markets adopted a risk-on mood following easing tensions between the US and EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This offset wider concerns about higher oil supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets were tense in recent weeks after US President Donald Trump continued to threaten action to take control of Greenland &#8216;one way or another&#8217;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One tactic was to threaten higher tariffs on EU countries that did not support the United States&#8217; plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This brought market anxiety about escalating the 2025 tariff war, retaliation, and a further breakdown in trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, tensions cooled this week following meetings at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the Trump administration appeared to back off threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This spurred risk-on sentiment, weakening the dollar, and pushing oil prices higher to over $65 a barrel from around $62 a barrel before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Generally, oil prices have been trading lower amid forecasts of a supply glut in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency reiterated its outlook that output would run ahead of demand this year by a wide margin, boosting stockpiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rand on a winning streak<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/rand.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/rand-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-812958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/rand-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/rand-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/rand-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/rand.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>While recoveries from oil prices and global petroleum costs have dimmed slightly this week, the rand has moved in the opposite direction, going from strength to strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After freezing at the R16.30\/$ resistance level at the start of the month, the local unit has broken through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In early trade on Friday, the rand hit a three-and-a-half-year low of R16.09 against the dollar, before pulling back slightly to around R16.15 by 11h00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has been on a winning streak over the last year amid massive shifts in global sentiment following Trump&#8217;s return. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand gained against the greenback throughout last year, primarily due to fears over the US&#8217;s fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve&#8217;s expansionary monetary policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa&#8217;s market in 2026 was muted and riding on the tailwind of 2025. Still, global markets were thrown into a volatile environment following the US&#8217;s attack on Venezuela and its stance on Greenland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heightened global volatility negatively affects the rand, as investors become risk-averse and seek developed, safe-haven assets for guaranteed returns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, much like the oil price, Trump&#8217;s apparent easing of threats over Greenland has increased risk-on sentiment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand is now hovering around the R16.00\/$, which aligns with Investec\u2019s purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside of the global environment, South Africa is also making progress amid domestic reforms and strong markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa was recently removed from the FATF&#8217;s grey list, it tabled a credible mid-term budget in November and experienced its first ratings upgrade in 20 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth is also expected to rise to 1.3% for 2025, an improvement from 2024&#8217;s 0.6. While 2026 and 2027 growth is expected to remain around 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, estimates point to growth reaching 3.0% by 2030. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the rand&#8217;s improvement, PPP measures, such as the Big Mac Index, indicate it is undervalued and should be between R11.30 and R14.30 to the dollar on a PPP basis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South African motorists are set for further relief, with petrol and diesel prices set to decline in February. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":840915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[3559,2722,3994],"class_list":["post-848656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-big-mac-index","tag-imf","tag-petrol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848656","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=848656"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848656\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":848669,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848656\/revisions\/848669"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/840915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=848656"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=848656"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=848656"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}