{"id":850501,"date":"2026-02-10T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=850501"},"modified":"2026-02-11T16:00:53","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T14:00:53","slug":"south-africa-heading-for-social-unrest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/850501\/south-africa-heading-for-social-unrest\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa heading for social unrest"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

South Africa is facing an increased risk of social unrest due to the combination of climate shocks and inadequate risk planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the warning from Muzi Dladla, Executive Manager at Sasria. Sasria (South African Special Risks Insurance Association) is a public enterprise listed under Schedule 3B of the Public Finance Management Act No 1 of 1999.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are a non-life insurance company that provides special risk insurance to government institutions such as municipalities, hospitals, schools, private organisations and individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This insurance covers damage caused by special risks such as politically motivated malicious acts, riots, strikes, terrorism and public disorders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking in an interview with Kaya Biz<\/a><\/strong>, Dladla cautioned that while the market sentiment for 2026 may appear positive on the surface, these signals mask structural risks that could lead to widespread instability if left unaddressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said that the experience of the 2021 unrest and mass looting is a prime example of how quickly social shocks can overwhelm the country when systems fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dladla warned that South Africa is entering what risk experts have described as a \u201cpolycrisis\u201d\u2014a scenario where multiple crises unfold and compound one another. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe compounding effect of all of them happening at the same time leads to a much bigger crisis,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Dladla, indicators suggest that in the next few years, particularly in the next seven years, there are some very serious risks that South Africa should at least plan for to avoid unrest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dladla explained that climate risk is a major trigger. South Africa\u2019s semi-arid climate is becoming increasingly volatile, with longer and more intense wet and dry cycles. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While floods have dominated recent headlines, he said the greater danger is the dry spells. \u201cWhen we move to the other side of El Ni\u00f1o, the dryness\u2026 that is what I\u2019m really, really worried about.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He warned that prolonged drought could escalate beyond environmental damage into mass social unrest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not only going to have dryness like a lack of rain. We\u2019re going to start having agricultural drought, then hydrological drought, and that\u2019s when it becomes a socioeconomic drought,\u201d Dladla said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There needs to be a plan and action <\/h2>\n\n\n
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Muzi Dladla, Executive Manager at Sasria<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Referring to Cape Town\u2019s near-Day Zero crisis, he said such scenarios mean you open the taps and there is no water, creating direct pressure on households rather than infrastructure alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dladla stressed that these scenarios disproportionately affect people, heightening the risk of unrest. \u201cIt\u2019s going to affect human beings more than it affects infrastructure,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe question then is, are we ready?\u2026 I can tell you we\u2019re not ready.\u201d He pointed to water shortages in Gauteng, flooding in multiple provinces, and extreme heat affecting agriculture as early warning signs of what lies ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dladla further explained that a lack of knowledge is not the heart of the problem, but a failure of coordination and governance of financial preparedness to mitigate risks like drought vs unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSouth Africa does have all the answers. We know what to do, but we just don\u2019t have enough systems from a governance perspective to make sure that we\u2019re able to do that,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that municipalities are struggling, risk financing is fragmented, and disaster responses are largely reactive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dladla stressed that without early warning systems, social safety nets, and coordinated risk financing, climate shocks could converge with other issues and spill over into unrest. \u201cYou layer risk \u2014 it\u2019s a basic principle of risk management,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSocial safety net is the first thing you do. That takes care of everybody else.\u201d Without it, he warned, crises could cascade into electricity failures, economic paralysis, and community conflicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n