{"id":850914,"date":"2026-02-13T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=850914"},"modified":"2026-02-13T10:11:18","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T08:11:18","slug":"wrong-turn-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/850914\/wrong-turn-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Wrong turn for petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fuel price recovery data for the second week of February shows that the pendulum has swung, and both petrol and diesel prices are now lined up for hikes in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that the under-recovery for diesel prices has deepened, while petrol prices have also moved into negative territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices are now building for a hike of around 2 cents per litre for March, which diesel prices are showing a potential hike of around 46 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at the end of the second week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 2 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 3 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 46 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase <\/mark>of 48 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 24 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While the stronger rand is still providing support to prices, the recent spike in global oil prices has kept petroleum product prices squarely in negative territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bad turn for petrol price recoveries is due to the base effects of global oil prices\u2014which started rising sharply at the end of January amid geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The month started with diesel oil price recoveries already deep in the red\u2014now at -66cpl\u2014with the contribution to petrol price recoveries turning negative in the past week (-19cpl).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has painted a different picture, with its strength against the dollar contributing towards a +17cpl over recovery for both fuel types.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The local unit has had a stand-out year so far against the dollar, trading below R15.70\/$ in January, moving back above R16.40\/$ in early February, and now settling at or below R16.00\/$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Its strength is broad, trading better against many currencies, but it is also tied to fluctuations in the US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand traded stronger ahead of President Cyril Ramaphosa&#8217;s State of the Nation Address on Thursday (12 February)\u2014hitting around R15.87\/$\u2014but retreated following the address.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is currently trading at R16.03\/$, with markets reading &#8220;more of the same&#8221; from the president&#8217;s speech and waiting for the real crunch time with the national budget on 25 February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the US, meanwhile, markets are waiting for US CPI data to signal the Federal Reserve&#8217;s path on interest rates, which will be reflected in the local exchange rate as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices, while still elevated, are easing on a risk-off tone in wider markets, concerns about a global crude glut, and the prospect of drawn-out US-Iran nuclear talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasters still expect worldwide supplies to exceed demand this year, but erratic geopolitical moves by the Trump administration are keeping markets on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Focus on petrol taxes ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Enoch-Godongwana-.jpg-123-e1770969864469.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Enoch-Godongwana-.jpg-123-e1770969864469-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-655909\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Enoch-Godongwana-.jpg-123-e1770969864469-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Enoch-Godongwana-.jpg-123-e1770969864469-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Enoch-Godongwana-.jpg-123-e1770969864469-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Enoch-Godongwana-.jpg-123-e1770969864469.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While motorists are lined up for petrol price hikes in March, because recoveries are so close to the edge, things could turn positive if market conditions improve (such a lower oil price).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, many will be looking beyond March to April, when new tax measures kick in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eyes are on Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana&#8217;s budget speech later this month for news on potential increases to the fuel levy and other taxes, which could impact pricing in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists have warned that, should the National Treasury seek to raise more tax revenues, a fuel tax would be an easy way to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fortunately, this situation could also be avoided completely if revenue collections and other cost savings lead to a more balanced budget. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Standard Bank chief economist Goolam Ballim recently explained that the strong performance of the South African bond market could make this scenario a reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ballim said Standard Bank\u2019s research indicates that revenues in the current fiscal year will overrun by around R15 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBecause of the declines in the interest rate paid on debt, it is entirely plausible that, in fact, the extent of tax hikes or raising taxes at all may not come to pass as a function of lower funding costs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, the budget may run into trouble if tax collection by the South African Revenue Service (SARS) falls short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Godongwana said at the 2025 MTBPS that an additional R20 billion in tax measures pencilled in for 2026 would only be wiped if SARS was able to close the gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The minister will present the 2026 Budget on 25 February 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fuel price recovery data for the second week of February shows that the pendulum has swung, and both petrol and diesel prices are now lined up for hikes in March.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":665025,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,2171],"class_list":["post-850914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/850914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=850914"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/850914\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":850923,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/850914\/revisions\/850923"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/665025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=850914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=850914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=850914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}