{"id":851676,"date":"2026-02-20T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=851676"},"modified":"2026-02-20T12:10:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T10:10:19","slug":"bad-news-about-petrol-prices-in-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/851676\/bad-news-about-petrol-prices-in-march\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad news about petrol prices in March"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fuel price recoveries have deteriorated in the third week of February, making petrol price cuts in March increasingly less likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While diesel prices have shown an underrecovery for much of the month\u2014all but cementing a hike in March\u2014petrol price recoveries have been skirting the edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fluctuating between and under- and over-recovery of a few cents per litre (cpl), data from Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the third week of Feb shows the scales tipping deeper into the red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the latest snapshot, petrol prices are showing an under-recovery of between 3 and 5 cpl, and contributing factors are deteriorating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For diesel, the under-recovery has deepened to around 48 cpl, with little hope that the picture will flip by month-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at the end of week 3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 3 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 5 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 46 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase <\/mark>of 49 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 27 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand is still contributing to an overall over-recovery in prices, helping to undercut the 20 to 68 cpl under-recovery from rising oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, while still much stronger in relative terms, the rand has <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/851625\/wrong-turn-for-the-rand\/\"><strong>taken a turn for the worse<\/strong><\/a> this week after fresh signals from the United States suggested interest rates there could stay higher for longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher US interest rates typically attract global capital flows into dollar assets, leaving emerging-market currencies vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has given the dollar some strength, pushing the rand back above R16\/$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with the rand&#8217;s turn, the local unit is still much stronger overall relative to January, and its contribution to fuel price recoveries remains positive at +16-18 cpl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem for motorists stems from oil prices, which have been trading higher in February, giving rise to base effects from low pricing over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil prices rising<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Trump-situation-room.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Trump-situation-room-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-828896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Trump-situation-room-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Trump-situation-room-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Trump-situation-room-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Trump-situation-room.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices rose to a six-month high this week, hitting close to $72 a barrel after United States President Donald Trump warned of possible military action against Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump has given Iran 15 days at most to reach a deal over its nuclear program as the US assembles a vast array of forces in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg, the looming war follows the United States&#8217; biggest military buildup in the Middle East since 2003, before the invasion of Iraq. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;That suggests Trump may launch a far more sweeping campaign than the overnight attack against Iran\u2019s nuclear program last June,&#8221; the media group said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The president is also weighing a limited early strike aimed at driving Tehran to the negotiating table, the Wall Street Journal reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, oil prices jumped 6% this past week, after slowly rising this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump said he thought 10 to 15 days were about the \u201cmaximum\u201d he would allow for negotiations to continue, raising concerns about a conflict and potential disruptions to oil supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pricing is being tempered by forecasters betting that Trump is looking to pile on pressure against Iran rather than &#8220;pull the trigger&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Washington under the Trump administration has been incredibly unpredictable and volatile in international relations since it took office 12 months ago, leaving many doubts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The impact of the geopolitical tensions is also being offset by ample oil supplies, with forecasters still anticipating a glut in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fuel price recoveries have deteriorated in the third week of February, making petrol price cuts in March increasingly less likely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":840915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,18450,2171,3670],"class_list":["post-851676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-oil-price","tag-petrol-price","tag-rand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=851676"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851676\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":851677,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851676\/revisions\/851677"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/840915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=851676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=851676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=851676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}