{"id":851787,"date":"2026-02-23T07:29:49","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T05:29:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=851787"},"modified":"2026-02-23T07:29:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T05:29:52","slug":"big-turn-for-south-africa-coming-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/budget-speech\/851787\/big-turn-for-south-africa-coming-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Big turn for South Africa coming this week"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will this week outline improvements in South Africa\u2019s public finances that pave the way for a sovereign credit-rating outlook upgrade, a Bloomberg survey shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Six of the nine economists canvassed \u2014 including those at Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley \u2014 expect Fitch Ratings to revise its outlook to positive at its next review. Four predict a similar move by Moody\u2019s Ratings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Standard Chartered Plc, which responded after the survey closed, expects both Fitch and Moody\u2019s to shift to a positive outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An outlook change is long overdue, after S&P Global Ratings in November<\/a> upgraded the country\u2019s credit rating to BB \u2014 two steps below investment grade \u2014 with a positive outlook, Razia Khan, Standard Chartered\u2019s chief economist for Africa and the Middle East, said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou can\u2019t ignore the positives in South Africa,\u201d Khan said in an interview on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re likely to see confirmation of the fiscal progress, and there\u2019s every possibility that revenue will outperform,\u201d buoyed by booming gold and other precious-metal prices, she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Godongwana delivers his budget at 14h00 in Cape Town on Wednesday, he\u2019s expected to announce that the National Treasury will beat its consolidated fiscal deficit forecast of 4.7% of gross domestic product for 2025\u201326, with economists projecting a shortfall of 4.4%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also expect the Treasury to meet its target of stabilising debt this fiscal year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSure, they could hang on to the fact that growth has been very slow to turn around, but I\u2019m not sure anyone really has reason to think it\u2019s going to remain persistently weak,\u201d Khan said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists in a different poll forecast South Africa\u2019s economy will grow 1.6% this year and 1.3% in 2025, after stagnating for more than a decade.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitch rates South Africa\u2019s long-term foreign-currency debt at BB-, three notches below investment grade, with a stable outlook. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moody\u2019s assesses the sovereign two levels below investment grade, assigning it a Ba2 rating with a stable outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A positive revision would vindicate the progress South Africa has made on reforms, such as improving its logistics and energy networks, reining in debt and lowering its inflation target<\/a> to 3% for the first time since 2000 to bring it in line with its trading partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other economists, such as BNP Paribas\u2019s Jeffrey Schultz, expect an outlook change only after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement later this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are not expecting any credit ratings upgrades or outlook changes in response to this budget,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRather, we think scope for ratings changes can come after the October MTBPS, where we think there will be more tangible evidence of fiscal consolidation.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will this week outline improvements in South Africa\u2019s public finances that pave the way for a sovereign credit-rating outlook upgrade, a Bloomberg survey shows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":812932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13716],"tags":[24823,2510,1512],"class_list":["post-851787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-budget-speech","tag-budget-speed","tag-fitch","tag-moodys"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=851787"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851787\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":851788,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851787\/revisions\/851788"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/812932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=851787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=851787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=851787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}