{"id":853111,"date":"2026-03-06T09:05:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:05:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=853111"},"modified":"2026-03-06T09:05:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:05:16","slug":"r4-50-per-litre-shock-coming-for-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/853111\/r4-50-per-litre-shock-coming-for-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"R4.50 per litre shock coming for South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>South African motorists are in for major price pain in April, with the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) pointing to steep increases in petrol and diesel prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data for the end of the first week of March shows a massive under-recovery in prices for both fuel types.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices are showing an under-recovery of R2.40 per litre\u2014much worse than just a few days ago\u2014while diesel prices are in the red by about R4.50 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If these recoveries follow through to the end of the month, South African motorists will see a complete reversal of the sizeable price cuts seen at the start of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices dropped by 65 cents per litre in January and again in February 2026, offset by a 20-cent-per-litre hike in March. On a net basis, prices have come down by R1.10 per litre so far this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at mid-month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"> increase<\/mark> of R2.28 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.41 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R4.39 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R4.50 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R6.60 per litre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Recoveries have trended deeper into the negatives as the United States&#8217; war on Iran continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US and its ally Israel launched an attack on Iran on 28 February 2026, killing the country&#8217;s Supreme Leader and many other heads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran retaliated, taking out US targets in neighbouring countries, resulting in even more bombardments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets have been shaken by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, with oil markets hit particularly hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The oil price has shot up from around $60 a barrel earlier in the year to $85 a barrel by Friday, 6 March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors have also adopted a risk-off position, pulling out of riskier emerging markets and funnelling into safe havens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the rand has also taken a significant hit, moving from under R16\/$ before the war, to trading around R16.60\/$ on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the impact on local markets has been hard, the boost to commodities\u2014especially gold\u2014has helped offset some of the risk aversion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless, both the higher oil price and the weaker rand versus the dollar are putting recoveries in the red, lining South Africa up for steep fuel price hikes in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">More pain coming<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Lesetja-Kganyago.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Lesetja-Kganyago-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-826027\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Lesetja-Kganyago-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Lesetja-Kganyago-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Lesetja-Kganyago-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Lesetja-Kganyago.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Reserve Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While the first week of the month is too early to make a solid call on where prices will be three weeks from now, it does show the current state of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For fuel price recoveries to reverse and head back towards neutral, both the oil price and rand\/dollar exchange would have to flip course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, markets are not anticipating an end to the war in Iran any time soon, with the White House pointing to &#8220;four to five&#8221; weeks of military action, and the capacity to go for even longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While economists do not anticipate a prolonged war (ie, years), the short-term impact will be carried by the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africans also have an added stressor in the equation, with fuel tax hikes also coming into effect from 1 April, adding another 21 cents per litre to fuel prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that, even if markets were to move towards neutrality, local pricing would still be tipped towards a hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Industries, such as the freight industry, have warned that the likely rise in fuel prices will have a knock-on effect throughout the supply chain, resulting in higher prices for goods and services and thus pushing up inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher inflation would put the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on edge, and likely nix any prospects for an interest rate cut in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists believe the SARB will see the war and inflationary impact as temporary, and thus won&#8217;t put the central bank on a path of rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, forecasters have started pricing in the possibility of rate hikes should the war prove more prolonged.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South African motorists are in for major price pain in April, with the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) pointing to steep increases in petrol and diesel prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":840915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,22148,2923,3619],"class_list":["post-853111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-prices","tag-petrol-prices","tag-sarb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=853111"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853111\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":853112,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853111\/revisions\/853112"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/840915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=853111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=853111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=853111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}