{"id":853588,"date":"2026-03-13T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=853588"},"modified":"2026-03-13T06:42:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T04:42:45","slug":"dawie-roodt-warns-south-africa-heading-for-big-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/853588\/dawie-roodt-warns-south-africa-heading-for-big-trouble\/","title":{"rendered":"Dawie Roodt warns South Africa heading for big trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

South Africa is heading for an economic shock if surging global oil prices persist, but ordinary South Africans are advised not to panic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the message from Efficient Group chief economist and director Dawie Roodt, who warned the country remains heavily dependent on imported fuel and is vulnerable to global supply disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices have surged over the past two weeks amid escalating conflict involving Iran, which is sending shockwaves through global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is because the conflict is disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key global trade route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For South Africa, the implications could be serious. In a recent interview<\/a><\/strong>, Roodt said the key issue is not just how high oil prices climb, but how long they remain elevated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOf course, it\u2019s not only oil. It\u2019s the exchange rate of the rand as well, and some other things like, for example, fertiliser prices will go up as well,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut the real question here is not really the level of the oil price. If we only talk about the oil price, it\u2019s the question of how long it\u2019s going to remain high.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if oil prices started to decline, he warned that a temporary spike would still deliver a shock to the local economy. However, a prolonged period of elevated prices would significantly worsen the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs it is, there will be a shock to the South African economy, even if it goes back to $70 now, for instance,\u201d Roodt said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut the longer it stays above $100 and the longer it stays above $120 or maybe even eventually reaches $150, the more severe the impact will be on the South African economy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Africa is particularly exposed because it imports roughly 90% of its oil needs, leaving it vulnerable to global supply disruptions and price spikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that industry players are already warning about sharp increases in the cost of fuel and other commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m talking to some people in the industry, and they\u2019re talking about the obvious significant increase in the price of petrol and diesel. More concerning, however, is the possibility of supply shortages,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey\u2019re also talking about the possibility of shortages. So if we simply run out of diesel, for instance, then that is going to be a significant problem as well.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don’t panic <\/h2>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/a>
Efficient Group chief economist Dawie Roodt<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Diesel is particularly sensitive to price shocks because it feeds directly into several critical parts of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Africa\u2019s heavy reliance on road transport further compounds the issue. \u201cWe put a lot of stuff on the roads, and it\u2019s also very important in agriculture,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, higher diesel costs quickly become embedded in the cost structures of key industries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOnce it becomes part of the cost structure of those industries, it tends to sort of linger around the price increases,\u201d Roodt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The knock-on effects will likely be felt across the broader economy, particularly through rising inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roodt estimated that the impact on consumer prices will take a few months to materialise. \u201cIt probably will take about two months or so, but then we\u2019re going to see a significant impact on various prices,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation is currently running at about 3.5%, but that could soon rise. \u201cIf the oil price remains at $100 for another month, for instance, in two months we\u2019re going to see inflation at about 4% or even higher.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This would also affect monetary policy, likely halting any plans for interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m very sure they\u2019re not going to cut rates. Previously, I thought that the Reserve Bank would cut by two times 25 basis points this year. They\u2019re not going to do that,\u201d Roodt said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The broader economic outlook would also deteriorate, undermining government growth forecasts and fiscal plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith the oil price where it is now, with the possibility of an increase in interest rates, we\u2019re not going to see the 1.6% economic growth that the Minister of Finance had in his budget,\u201d Roodt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat means that the deficit and the debt numbers are all going to move in the wrong direction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that any hopes of a sovereign credit rating upgrade in the near term are now effectively off the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTwo weeks ago, I thought that the fiscal accounts would stabilise. I think the Minister of Finance had a reasonable budget, but now I\u2019m not so sure anymore,\u201d Roodt said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m really battling to find a bit of a silver lining here,\u201d he said. However, for ordinary South Africans, his advice is not to panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDon\u2019t start overreacting here. Get a good financial advisor, stick to your plans,\u201d Roodt said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He emphasised that financial markets are inherently volatile. \u201cRemember, the financial markets do this all the time. They go down, and they go up all the time,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Africa is heading for an economic shock if surging global oil prices persist, but ordinary South Africans are advised not to panic.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":837702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[1459,853],"class_list":["post-853588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-opinion","tag-dawie-roodt","tag-south-africa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=853588"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853588\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":853803,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853588\/revisions\/853803"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/837702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=853588"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=853588"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=853588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}