{"id":854056,"date":"2026-03-16T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=854056"},"modified":"2026-03-16T15:15:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:15:18","slug":"rand-getting-hammered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/854056\/rand-getting-hammered\/","title":{"rendered":"Rand getting hammered"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The South African rand has come under further pressure as global markets react to rising geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices, which are pushing investors away from emerging-market currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, the latest escalation in the Middle East has triggered sharp movements in energy markets and financial assets, hitting the rand particularly hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe oil price has spiked again, reaching US$106\/bbl for Brent crude as escalating market risk aversion drove the rand near R17.00\/USD, while risky assets in general have seen some sell-off,\u201d Bishop said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions have intensified after missile strikes in parts of the Gulf region, raising fears of wider retaliation across neighbouring countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict has also drawn in global powers, increasing uncertainty about the stability of key energy supply routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concerns have centred on the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which a large portion of the world\u2019s oil supply passes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cConcerns are that the oil supply interruption from the war will be greater than the stockpiled reserves, limiting but not preventing the escalation in oil prices globally,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While markets still view the conflict as short-lived, the price spike is already feeding through to South Africa\u2019s fuel outlook and inflation expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe petrol price under recovery has risen to R4.27 per litre for April, a hefty price jump that would add around 1.0% year-on-year to South Africa\u2019s inflation rate in that month,\u201d Bishop said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Africa adjusts fuel prices on the first Wednesday of each month based largely on the previous month\u2019s rand-based petroleum product costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impact could be even more severe for diesel, a critical input for industry and transport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe diesel price is estimated now to rise by R7.04 per litre in April,\u201d Bishop said, noting that diesel plays a key role in the country\u2019s industrial production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets still expect war to be short-lived<\/h2>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/a>
Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Higher fuel costs are likely to ripple through the economy, raising both consumer and producer inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe impact will still be very significant on inflation, and for producer price inflation, second-round effects are very substantial from large jumps in the diesel price, which in turn feeds into CPI inflation too and weakens GDP growth,\u201d Bishop explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She added that although South Africa has some protection because taxes and levies make up roughly half of the fuel price, the overall effect will still be noticeable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAbout 50% of the fuel price in South Africa is taxes and levies, typically adjusted once a year, which means large swings in international petroleum product prices in rands only affect around half the fuel price, providing some buffer,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Globally, rising energy costs are also shifting investor sentiment and dampening market growth expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the S&P Global Investment Manager Index, the outlook has deteriorated as investors become increasingly cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe prospect of weaker economic growth in the short-term is accompanied by concerns over inflation due to higher energy prices,\u201d Bishop said, citing the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, investors have scaled back expectations of policy support and reduced the anticipated benefits for equity markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe darkening political and macro environment, and pullback in expectations of policy support, has led to a downgrading of any expected benefit to the market from equity fundamentals and shareholder returns over the next month,\u201d Bishop said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the near term, markets are repositioning towards defensive sectors, including energy, healthcare, utilities and consumer staples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Bishop noted that markets are still largely assuming the conflict will be brief.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The South African rand has come under more pressure as global markets react to rising geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":656761,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[1498,3670,853],"class_list":["post-854056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-investec","tag-rand","tag-south-africa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854056","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=854056"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854056\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":854066,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854056\/revisions\/854066"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/656761"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=854056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=854056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=854056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}