Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter has warned that Eskom is fully aware that South Africa is heading toward a power crisis unless urgent action is taken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He shared this information during a discussion organised by the Sa\u00efd Business School at the University of Oxford.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De Ruyter explained that the country is currently benefiting from a temporary \u201cwindow of opportunity,\u201d with load shedding largely suspended due to a mix of factors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that this stability is largely due to \u201cvery competent and capable system operators\u201d at Eskom who have kept the grid intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He noted that several developments have contributed to the improved situation, including private sector investment and Eskom\u2019s own recovery efforts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe know that the private sector has invested enormously in its own generation, to the tune of between 6 and 7 gigawatts of rooftop capacity, which is huge. It\u2019s twice the size of a large coal-fired power station, and that was done in the space of about 18 months,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alongside this, maintenance projects initiated during his tenure and the completion of previously unfinished power units have helped ease pressure on the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, de Ruyter stressed that this improvement should not be mistaken for a permanent solution. He pointed to Eskom\u2019s own forecasts as evidence of looming trouble. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cEskom knows because it recently published the medium-term system adequacy outlook report, which is required by law,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIn that, it says there is an enhanced risk of load shedding from 2029 onwards as coal-fired power stations are retired. So we know there\u2019s a cliff approaching.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because of this, de Ruyter stressed that this creates a narrowing gap in which new generation capacity must be added quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He argued that the solution is clear. \u201cThe only technology that is both competitive and can be deployed within this time horizon is really renewable energy and battery storage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De Ruyter dismissed alternative energy options as either too slow, too expensive, or impractical for South Africa\u2019s needs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cYou can wish for 10 nuclear power stations, but we all know that nuclear takes forever to complete, and has the tendency to be extraordinarily expensive with huge cost overruns. They just don\u2019t deliver on time in a predictable way,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that coal is no longer a viable option either, noting that even major financiers are moving away from funding new coal projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gas, meanwhile, presents its own challenges. \u201cSouth Africa has no domestic gas resources, so we\u2019d have to import gas\u2026 which makes gas very, very expensive,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While renewable energy has historically faced criticism for its intermittency, de Ruyter said this is no longer a decisive drawback. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRenewable energy is intermittent\u2014it only works when the sun shines, and the wind blows\u2014but battery costs have come down to the point where it\u2019s now really possible to render renewable energy dispatchable using storage and still be competitive,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He described this moment as a turning point not just for South Africa but for the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI think it is the first time ever that we are in a position where we\u2019ve got a credible zero-carbon alternative on the table that is competitive and does not rely on subsidies,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For de Ruyter stressed that the opportunity is there, the logic is sound, the technology is there\u2014it\u2019s now a question of implementation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhat we shouldn\u2019t do is to dither and dawdle and delay. We should do it now. I see absolutely no reason why we should wait any longer,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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