{"id":854721,"date":"2026-03-24T10:03:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T08:03:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=854721"},"modified":"2026-03-24T10:03:26","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T08:03:26","slug":"south-africa-is-two-weeks-away-from-a-fuel-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/854721\/south-africa-is-two-weeks-away-from-a-fuel-disaster\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa is two weeks away from a fuel disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Farmers in South Africa are heading into the winter planting season with surging diesel prices and tightening supplies \u2014 triggered by the Middle East conflict \u2014 threatening production in sub-Saharan Africa\u2019s largest commercial wheat-growing industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Rossouw Dippenaar, who farms near Riebeek-West, about 80 kilometres northeast of Cape Town, time is running out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He needs as much as 40,000 litres of diesel to plant his wheat, but has only secured about 6,000 litres because some retailers are limiting purchases in a bid to prevent a run on their stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know what I will do if it doesn\u2019t change in the next two weeks<\/strong>,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m living in hope that it will get better.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A five-day halt to US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure announced by President Donald Trump on Monday eased global oil prices. But there\u2019s little sign that trade will normalise any time soon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, restricting shipments from key oil and fertiliser producers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman, and has dismissed Trump\u2019s claims that ceasefire talks are underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike in many sub-Saharan African countries, most of South Africa\u2019s crops are grown on commercial farms, with production heavily dependent on inputs such as fuel and fertiliser. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia produced about three times the 1.9 million tons of wheat that South Africa did last season, but it is primarily grown by small-scale farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe combined effects of rising diesel and fertiliser prices present one of the most significant cost shocks to producers in recent years,\u201d Richard Krige, chairman of Grain SA, which represents corn and wheat farmers, said in a statement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe impact on farmer viability \u2014 and therefore food security \u2014 could be severe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the US and Israel began bombing Iran on 28 February, global oil prices have surged by 40% or more and emerging-market currencies such as the South African rand have plunged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cost Shock<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fuel and fertiliser account for about half of grain farmers\u2019 production costs in the country, and preliminary data suggests the diesel price, which is set monthly, will rise by almost half in April. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many farmers have already ordered fertiliser, but expect to pay higher prices when they replenish supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wheat farmers aren\u2019t the only ones who are concerned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First to be affected will be sunflower and soybean farmers, who will need diesel to harvest by the end of this month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wheat, barley and canola farmers will start planting in April, and corn farmers in Africa\u2019s biggest exporter of the staple will begin harvesting in late May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Farmers of so-called winter grains, such as wheat, may cut plantings if they aren\u2019t confident that prices for their produce will rise sufficiently to compensate for higher costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, there is little sign of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wheat prices on the South African Futures Exchange in Johannesburg have climbed only 5.6% since the start of the war, and the most commonly traded corn contract is up 11%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they do rise significantly, there would be a knock-on effect on inflation in a country where cornmeal and bread are the main staples and beef cattle and poultry are fed corn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFarmers are price takers and will either have to absorb these costs, or they will say they can\u2019t plant profitably anymore and will halt production,\u201d said Corn\u00e9 Louw, an agriculture economist at Grain SA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Africa, which has seen its refinery capacity halve in recent years, imports most of the fuel it consumes and 80% of the 2 million tons of fertiliser it uses annually. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A third of the crop nutrients comes from the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur biggest hope is that the commodity prices will rise with the input costs,\u201d said Johan van Zyl, who farms between Malmesbury and Moorreesburg in the Western Cape province. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re going to be selling at a low price while it\u2019s expensive to get the crop in the ground, it\u2019s a recipe for disaster, and you will become bankrupt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher fertiliser prices are currently the main concern, but availability will become a major concern if the war drags on, said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at agricultural business chamber Agbiz and presidential envoy on agriculture and land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While industry associations and the government insist the country has enough fuel and the regulated diesel wholesale price will only increase on 1 April, some filling stations have run dry or are limiting the volume of diesel people can buy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Farming co-operatives such as OVK have already begun increasing the price they charge for diesel. The government has said it has little room to intervene. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a March 11 speech to a Grain SA congress, Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen lamented the impact of global market volatility but mentioned no measures the government could take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an international crisis, and because we are so dependent on imports, it means producers will feel it,\u201d said Willem de Chavonnes Vrugt, president of Agri SA, the biggest farmers’ lobby group. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd that will end with the consumer if local production does not happen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first official indication of how wheat production will be impacted will come on 23 April when the Crop Estimates Committee releases its report on farmers\u2019 intentions to plant winter cereals for 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many farmers say they will need to press ahead regardless of the current market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe just have to plant blindly,\u201d said Dippenaar. \u201cWhat else can we do?\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Farmers in South Africa are heading into the winter planting season with surging diesel prices and tightening supplies, threatening production.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":848808,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[22148],"class_list":["post-854721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-diesel-prices"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=854721"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":854724,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854721\/revisions\/854724"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/848808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=854721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=854721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=854721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}