{"id":854727,"date":"2026-03-24T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=854727"},"modified":"2026-03-24T11:58:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T09:58:03","slug":"big-turn-for-south-africans-earning-over-r240000-a-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business\/854727\/big-turn-for-south-africans-earning-over-r240000-a-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Big turn for South Africans earning over R240,000 a year"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Confidence among consumers in South Africa has risen, but middle- and high-income consumers are keeping their eye on the conflict in the Middle East. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest FNB\/BER consumer confidence index (CCI) for Q1 2026 is the highest reading since Q4 2024, when the two-pot retirement savings system kicked in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Q1 2026 reading stands at -7, which is the best reading since Q4 2024’s -6, even if it still points to a negative environment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Affluent households benefited from two-pot pension fund withdrawals, declining interest rates, rising stock prices and a stronger rand exchange rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the latest survey, most of the fieldwork was completed by the time of the Budget Speech on 25 February and the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran on 28 February. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The fallout from this development, including skyrocketing oil prices, plunging stock exchanges and travel disruptions, may well knock consumer confidence in the coming months.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This introduces a clear downside risk to what had been a broadly improving consumer confidence trajectory.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, the CCI for Q1 2026 still showed upticks in the economic outlook and household finances sub-indices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The economic outlook sub-index increased from -19 to -14 in 2026Q1, while the household finances sub-index jumped from 5 to 12 index points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, the subindex measuring the appropriateness of the present time to buy durable goods, such as furniture, reversed its Q4 gains, falling from -14 to -21. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) refused to cut interest rates in January 2026, which may have weighed on the time-to-buy durable goods index, as consumers rely on debt for these purchases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rich households feeling more upbeat<\/h2>\n\n\n
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Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya – FNB Chief Economist<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

A breakdown of the CCI by household income group shows divergent confidence trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The confidence levels of high-income households, those who earn over R20 000 per month, rebounded from -12 to -4 index points during 2026Q1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were improvements in all three sub-indices for high-income consumers, with a large improvement in the outlook for household finances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The subindex rose from 4 to 14 in Q1 2026, which is the highest level since Q2 2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

High-income consumers were also the only income group that registered an improvement in their rating of the present time to buy durable goods. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The confidence levels of middle-income households, those earning between R5,000 and R20,000, edged up by one point, from -8 to -7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like the high-income group, a larger net percentage of middle-income households, up from 5 to 13, expect their finances to improve over the next year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, confidence levels of low-income consumers, those earning less than R5,000 per month, dropped from -8 to -12. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDisappointing employment growth towards the end of 2025 and tighter compliance measures in the social grant system, in all likelihood, punctured the confidence levels of low-income households,” said FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Stats SA, only 44,000 jobs were created in Q4 2025, resulting in year-on-year growth of a mere 0.1%, well below the real GDP growth rate of 0.8% for the quarter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, following years of above-inflation grant increases, the National Treasury went with an inflation-adjusted rate for the coming year, while the SRD grant remained unchanged at R370. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cJob creation would need to accelerate significantly to counter the adverse impacts of slower growth in social grants payments and, especially, the projected fuel price shock on low-income households,\u201d said Matikinca-Ngwenya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimates show that petrol and paraffin prices could surge by about R5 and R10 per litre, respectively, in April, on the back of oil supply constraints due to Iran\u2019s shipping blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This combination of weaker income support and rising fuel costs is likely to put further strain on less-affluent households. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the strikes on Iran, a range of positive developments boosted the confidence of high-income consumers, including lower fuel prices and expectations of lower interest rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnfortunately, the ripple effects from the Iranian war may well see a U-turn in high- and middle-income confidence during the second quarter,\u201d said Matikinca-Ngwenya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cApart from the 10% fall in the JSE, the weaker rand exchange rate, travel disruptions and projected jump in fuel prices, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts during the second quarter has now all but evaporated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Confidence levels among South Africa’s wealthy were high at the start of the year, but the conflict in the Middle East is having disastrous impacts at home. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":682055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9872],"tags":[14829,76],"class_list":["post-854727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-ber","tag-fnb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=854727"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854727\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":854755,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854727\/revisions\/854755"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/682055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=854727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=854727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=854727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}