{"id":855129,"date":"2026-03-27T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=855129"},"modified":"2026-03-27T11:50:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T09:50:03","slug":"ramokgopa-responds-to-threat-of-energy-armageddon-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/855129\/ramokgopa-responds-to-threat-of-energy-armageddon-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Ramokgopa responds to threat of ‘energy Armageddon’ in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says South Africa isn’t facing an ‘energy Armageddon’ in 2030, following warnings from Eskom and energy experts of a looming supply cliff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts and Eskom’s own forecasts have flagged an “electricity generation cliff” approaching in 2030, driven by the retirement of 5.26 GW of coal capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom\u2019s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030, published in October 2025, warned that load shedding is likely to return as a result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MK Party MP Siyabonga Gama put a question to Ramokgopa about the predicted event, asking whether the country “should prepare for Armageddon” in 2030 as it hits the cliff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Ramokgopa said such an eventuality is not supported by the current evidence or the department’s planning framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the minister, the department is aware of the looming generation shutdowns and has developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate the projected supply gap beyond 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This plan is driven by the Integrated Resource Plan for 2025 and incorporates Eskom’s long-term planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“While the planned decommissioning of older stations will proceed in line with environmental and policy commitments, selected stations such as Camden, Hendrina, Grootvlei, Kriel and Arnot will continue operating to 2030 to provide system support,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The department is also accelerating the procurement and development of dispatchable and flexible generation capacity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This includes gas-to-power, nuclear, pumped storage, battery energy storage systems, and long-duration storage solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Renewable energy is also being scaled in a sequenced and coordinated manner,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The expansion of solar photovoltaic and wind generation is aligned with the availability of grid capacity and supported by firming technologies.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramokgopa added that the department is also supporting the expansion of the grid with the National Transmission Company of South Africa and the Independent Transmission Projects programme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will ensure that generation capacity is brought online in a predictable and coordinated manner, avoiding mismatches between generation and grid readiness, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Taken together, these measures are designed to ensure a managed and orderly transition, maintaining energy security while diversifying the generation mix.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Armageddon on hold?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ramokgopa dismissed any notion that South Africa is approaching a supply collapse or “energy armageddon”, saying the issues ahead are about transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“South Africa is approaching a complex transition point that requires careful sequencing of decommissioning, new capacity build, and grid expansion,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The challenge ahead is therefore not one of system collapse, but of execution at scale.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said the department is focused on ensuring that planning, procurement, and implementation remain aligned so that South Africa transitions to a more sustainable and reliable energy system without compromising security of supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, energy experts have questioned a key issue: time.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the electricity minister talks of building new capacity to make up for the coal losses to come, new builds and procurement take years, if not decades, to complete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the so-called supply cliff is three to four years away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Synthesis Power Solutions director and energy expert Thomas Garner recently noted that coal-fired power stations take 15 years to build.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On nuclear energy, Garner said that while recent international projects show it can be delivered on time, the long lead times remain a major obstacle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuclear typically takes 15 to 20 years from inception to commissioning, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if South Africa built new plants near the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station and at Thyspunt in the Eastern Cape, it would only add around 3.6 GW over two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gas-to-power has potential, he said, but faces fuel supply and infrastructure hurdles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has been highlighted by constraints in Mozambique’s fields and the need for new import terminals and environmental approvals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The expert warned that unless South Africa accelerates grid expansion, embraces renewables and storage, and fully unbundles the electricity sector, the 2029\/30 supply gap remains a very real possibility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says South Africa isn’t facing an ‘energy Armageddon’ in 2030, following warnings from Eskom and energy experts of a looming supply cliff.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":682775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[1164,1165],"class_list":["post-855129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-eskom","tag-load-shedding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/855129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=855129"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/855129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":855144,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/855129\/revisions\/855144"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/682775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=855129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=855129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=855129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}