While this early signal could be a far stretch from where the final adjustments may land, it shows that markets are starting the new review period in trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The next price adjustment on Wednesday, 6 May 2026, will be based on the average unit over\/under recovery tracked by the CEF for the period from 27 March to 30 April 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the data, just a day later, has already shown a far more positive shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While under-recoveries are still eye-watering, they have pulled back by over R1 for petrol and almost R3 for diesel, marking a big turn in a better direction for motorists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This comes with the caveat that significant fluctuations can be expected as the month continues, all hinging on the length of the war in the Middle East, and market response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are the projected levels at the start of April:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Petrol 93:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R5.93 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Petrol 95:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R6.30 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong>increase<\/mark> of R14.85 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> increase <\/mark>of R14.91 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong>increase<\/mark> of R13.95 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to provide an expected price for the coming month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The daily snapshots from the CEF are also not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the data provides a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects ongoing market trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Petrol prices ripple across South Africa’s economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/sanisha-packirisamy-1600-1024x576.jpg\")
<\/a>Momentum Investments Chief Economist, Sanisha Packirisamy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Aside from hitting South Africans directly in their pockets, the higher and possibly rising fuel prices will send shockwaves across the entire economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Momentum Investments\u2019 Chief Economist, Sanisha Packirisamy, this is already evident through authorities such as the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and its position on interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the impact will be felt even more when the fuel costs feed into inflation figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Packirisamy noted that the SARB had been telegraphing a cautious interest rate-cutting cycle before the March meeting, but added that the petrol pump pinch has effectively moved the goalposts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
“As a price-taker in the global oil market, the upward pressure on local fuel prices acts as a significant drag on consumer confidence and raises local transport costs,” she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The economist said that, while fuel only accounts for 3.8% of the consumer inflation basket, food contributes 16.8%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
“With the Agricultural Business Chamber estimating that 80% of maize is moved by road transport, higher fuel prices bode ill for food inflation in the near term,” she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Packirisamy added that the risk is that the energy-led inflation spike becomes broad-based, filtering into food prices and transport costs, which hit the lower-income deciles the hardest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Moreover, 80% of South Africa’s fertiliser is imported, providing further pressure.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist at Investec, said that the fuel pricing pressures are not necessarily over, and that the longer the war in the Middle East continues, the harsher the impact will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRisks have risen, and the fuel price increase, if not quickly reversed in May, will weaken GDP,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Packirisamy said the overall environment has dashed hopes of interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“The SARB is likely to keep interest rates elevated to protect its new inflation target from geopolitically driven price pressures,” she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Forward-rate agreements have moved away from pricing in two interest rate cuts by early 2027, to now forecasting three hikes in the same period.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, she noted that Momentum’s view is that this would be too aggressive and would negatively impact growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
What many believed was a bad April Fool’s Day joke has proven to be a harsh reality, with early data from the Central Energy Fund suggesting a rough month ahead for fuel price recoveries.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":855830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,6652,2923,22360],"class_list":["post-855811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-momentum","tag-petrol-prices","tag-sanisha-packirisamy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/855811","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=855811"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/855811\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":855848,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/855811\/revisions\/855848"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/855830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=855811"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=855811"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=855811"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- Petrol 95:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R6.30 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n