{"id":856355,"date":"2026-04-09T10:40:38","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T08:40:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=856355"},"modified":"2026-04-10T11:27:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T09:27:30","slug":"gold-and-bitcoin-arent-rivals-theyre-insurance-against-different-disasters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/industry-news\/856355\/gold-and-bitcoin-arent-rivals-theyre-insurance-against-different-disasters\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold and bitcoin aren\u2019t rivals. They\u2019re insurance against different disasters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em><sup>Tino Mombo, Novare Actuarial Specialist<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For decades, the global financial system rested on a single, largely uncontested foundation: the dollar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It functioned as the neutral medium of exchange, the world\u2019s reserve currency, and the risk-free anchor against which everything else was priced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That foundation hasn\u2019t cracked outright \u2013 but it is starting to show strain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/novare.com\/?utm_source=BusinessTech&amp;utm_medium=Article&amp;utm_term=April+2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click here to learn more about Novare.<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar\u2019s share of global foreign exchange reserves has slipped from above 70% in 2001 to about 58% today, according to the International Monetary Fund. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move has been gradual, and the dollar remains dominant. But the direction is consistent, and the drivers are structural rather than cyclical. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>High US debt, the growing use of financial infrastructure as a geopolitical lever, and the weaponisation of dollar-based systems have introduced a different kind of risk \u2013 less about volatility, more about discretion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s against this backdrop that renewed interest in both gold and bitcoin makes sense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are often framed as opposing bets \u2013 old money versus new. That\u2019s too neat. Instead, they need to be treated as complementary: two ways of insuring against a system that is fragmenting in different directions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What matters is not choosing between them, but understanding what each is actually doing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What the dollar dilemma means for investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re facing a \u201creserve currency paradox\u201d. The US faces a structural trilemma: it cannot simultaneously maintain reserve-currency status, run a balanced trade, and reindustrialise. At best, it can pick two\u201d. Says Tino Mombo, Novare Actuarial Specialist<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For much of the past 80 years, the US has prioritised a strong dollar to preserve its reserve status, or so-called \u201cbanking\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The trade-off was a hollowing out of domestic industry, as manufacturing struggled to compete with cheaper offshore production. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Surplus economies \u2013 China, Germany, Japan \u2013 recycled their earnings into US Treasuries, locking in the imbalance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now the pendulum is swinging towards \u201cbuilding\u201d: reshoring industry, investing in energy and technology, and leaning into industrial policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But a country cannot rebuild its industrial base while running a structurally overvalued currency. A weaker dollar \u2013 and likely stickier inflation \u2013 is the price of that shift.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US debt already exceeds 100% of GDP. There is a historical precedent for what happens next: in 1985, the G5 struck the Plaza Accord, agreeing to coordinated depreciation of the dollar to correct trade imbalances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It worked \u2013 but Japan absorbed much of the adjustment and spent the following decade trapped in a deflationary spiral. These things don\u2019t resolve cleanly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For South African investors, the pressure is not abstract. National Treasury projects local debt to peak at around 78.9% of GDP \u2013 a reminder that fiscal strain is hardly a US-only problem. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if the old assumption \u2013 that bonds reliably offset equity risk \u2013 starts to wobble when inflation and geopolitical risk rise together, the question is no longer which traditional asset to lean on, but how to hedge a system that may be forced into uncomfortable trade-offs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What gold is actually hedging<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold\u2019s resurgence is often framed as an inflation story. That\u2019s only part of it. Increasingly, it\u2019s about governance risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The global system once ran on the assumption that reserve assets were politically neutral \u2013 that access to financial infrastructure was predictable, even in tense moments.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, in 2022, Western governments froze roughly $300bn of Russia\u2019s central bank reserves in response to the invasion of Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whatever one thinks of the decision, the consequence was unmistakable: a sovereign central bank discovered that assets it believed it held could be made inaccessible overnight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s the moment the assumption broke, and the world\u2019s central banks noticed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold hedges that risk because it sits outside the system. It is no one\u2019s liability. It carries no counterparty exposure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It doesn\u2019t depend on a payment network, a regulator, or a policy decision to retain its value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That helps explain why central banks \u2013 particularly in emerging markets \u2013 have been buying at pace. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Net purchases reached 863 tonnes in 2025, and the World Gold Council says 43% of central banks plan to increase holdings further. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are not chasing returns; they are reducing reliance on assets that can be frozen, sanctioned or otherwise politicised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>None of this prevents gold from behaving like a commodity in the short term. It will still sell off in liquidity squeezes as investors raise cash. That\u2019s a feature of markets, not a contradiction of their role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is, however, a fair counterpoint. Some investors have argued that gold is showing signs of speculative excess. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The speed of the rally to a record high of $5,595 per ounce on January 29 and back to about $4,600 in early April suggests demand may not be entirely fundamental. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That caution is warranted \u2013 commodity cycles do turn, and South African investors are particularly exposed, with gold and platinum stocks making up roughly a quarter of the JSE All Share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the cyclical and structural cases can coexist. Gold can be expensive \u2013 even frothy \u2013 and still serve a purpose as insurance against a system where political risk has become embedded in the plumbing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What bitcoin is hedging instead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin addresses a different vulnerability altogether: access.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where gold hedges the breakdown of trust between states, bitcoin hedges the breakdown of trust between individuals and institutions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Its value isn\u2019t in stability \u2013 it\u2019s still far too volatile for that \u2013 but in its ability to function outside traditional channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin works as a \u201cmobility asset\u201d. It protects the ability to move and store value when the usual routes \u2013 banks, payment systems, capital markets \u2013 are restricted or conditional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That matters in a world of capital controls, banking fragility, and increasingly tight regulatory oversight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In those edge cases, volatility is almost beside the point. Bitcoin\u2019s appeal lies in its offering an alternative route altogether.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The contrast with gold is telling. Gold doesn\u2019t threaten the system; central banks hold it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin, by design, sidesteps it. It weakens the effectiveness of capital controls and reduces reliance on intermediaries. Unsurprisingly, it attracts more scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That doesn\u2019t invalidate its use case. If anything, it defines it more clearly. Bitcoin\u2019s role sits outside the institutional framework. Gold sits within it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Put that way, we can look at holding both assets as a \u201ctrust barbell\u201d: a way of holding insurance against different outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold anchors one side \u2013 against sovereign overreach, policy error, or currency debasement. Bitcoin sits on the other \u2013 a more volatile, asymmetric hedge against restrictions on access and movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are not substitutes for each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The barbell isn\u2019t a fringe idea \u2013 it\u2019s a response to a system that no longer fails in just one way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/novare.com\/?utm_source=BusinessTech&amp;utm_medium=Article&amp;utm_term=April+2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click here to learn more about Novare.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The debate about gold and bitcoin as competing safe havens misses the point. Both are responding to the same underlying shift \u2013 but they hedge different failure modes within it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":856394,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10459],"tags":[5537,20440],"class_list":["post-856355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-novare"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=856355"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":856395,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856355\/revisions\/856395"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/856394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=856355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=856355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=856355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}