{"id":856567,"date":"2026-04-10T12:31:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T10:31:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=856567"},"modified":"2026-04-10T15:09:51","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T13:09:51","slug":"big-trouble-for-petrol-prices-in-may-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/856567\/big-trouble-for-petrol-prices-in-may-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol price pain for South Africa in May"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Central Energy Fund (CEF) data for the end of the first full week of the month shows that motorists are still on the hook for a massive jump in pump prices in May, with an even bigger blow in store.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the group&#8217;s snapshot data for 9 April 2026, both petrol and diesel are still showing massive under-recoveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices have an under-recovery of between R3.25 and R3.63 per litre, while diesel prices show a staggering under-recovery of between R10.80 and R10.84 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only consolation in the data is that under-recoveries have reduced significantly since the start of the month, where they were around R8 and R17 per litre for petrol and diesel, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While under-recovery has been narrowing gradually, a significant leap occurred earlier this week when the United States announced a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is how the projection stands at the end of the week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.25 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.63 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R10.80 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase <\/mark>of R10.84 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R8.54 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to provide an expected price for the coming month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The data points to a positive trajectory for fuel prices in South Africa, but it is still a long way from a positive outcome for motorists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Aluma Capital Chief Economist, Frederick Mitchell, the more positive trajectory also comes with several harsh edges that can still cut motorists deeply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first big cut is that the disruptions from the Middle East war are already baked into May&#8217;s fuel prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that, despite the ceasefire announced this week, fuel price recoveries are highly unlikely to swing into over-recoveries or short-term cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second big cut is that the ceasefire itself is shaky and carries risks of breaking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As many analysts have cautioned, the positive turn in global oil prices will only last as long as the ceasefire holds. If it breaks, markets could spin rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Already, there have been reports and allegations of tensions rebuilding, with Israel&#8217;s attacks on Lebanon putting talks between the US and Iran on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global oil prices, which pulled back by $17 a barrel on the ceasefire announcement to trade at $94, already reflect these tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fuel tax pain is coming back<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/mantashe-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/mantashe-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-854934\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/mantashe-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/mantashe-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/mantashe-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/mantashe-1.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the third cut is possibly the deepest, with Mitchell warning that the R3.00 per litre fuel relief granted in April could be coming back in full in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mitchell said this will be the \u201creal test\u201d, as\u00a0adding back R3.00 per litre would, at this stage, almost double the current projected increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cEven with the global reprieve, the reinstatement of this tax remains a significant hurdle for inflation management,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The National Treasury has not yet indicated how the tax will be added back. However, it was explicit that the relief would only be in effect for one month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treasury and the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources are expected to announce further relief measures for May and June, but these are anticipated to be longer-term interventions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An example of a longer-term measure is the department&#8217;s recent announcement that it would review petrol price structures on the local side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would encompass reviewing retail margins and other aspects of the fuel price that are within local control.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CEF data for the end of the first full week of the month shows that motorists are still on the hook for a massive jump in pump prices in May, with an even bigger blow in store.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":856572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[21743,8995,2923],"class_list":["post-856567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-aluma-capital","tag-cef","tag-petrol-prices"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=856567"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856567\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":856652,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856567\/revisions\/856652"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/856572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=856567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=856567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=856567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}