blockade<\/a>\u00a0of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening tensions with Iran following the collapse of weekend peace talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe US Central Command said that its forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
US forces won\u2019t impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran said it \u201cwon\u2019t allow\u201d the blockade to go ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As has become a regular feature of the Trump administration, the US President’s threats of escalation dented sentiment and reversed the gains made ahead of the US-Iran talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Last week, the US announced a ceasefire with Iran, as the two countries moved into talks over the weekend to hash out a longer-term settlement for the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This saw the oil price pull back from close to $111 a barrel to as low as $94 a barrel almost instantly, as market tension eased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For local fuel prices, this provided a significant boost to recoveries, shaving close to R3.00 per litre from the under-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While fuel prices are still building for another sharp hike in May 2026, the lower oil price dulled the blade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the collapse of US-Iran negotiations and the order to set up a blockade have now sent oil prices in the other direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The negotiations, led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, broke down due to differences over the future of Iran\u2019s nuclear programme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Monday, 13 April, prices pushed back above $100 per barrel, trading at $102.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Onyx Capital Group Managing Director Jorge Montepeque, on Bloomberg Television, the increase\u2014an 8% jump\u2014is not reflective of what could happen if the US proceeds with its plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt really makes no sense. It should be $140, $150,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Montepeque said the US blockade would transform a regional fight into a potentially global one, with a supply loss of up to 12 million barrels a day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fuel prices recoveries at 10 April 2026 – before the blockade:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- Petrol 93:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R3.00 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Petrol 95:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R3.38 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong>increase<\/mark> of R10.15 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> increase <\/mark>of R10.18 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong>increase<\/mark> of R7.97 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Bloomberg analysts noted that markets and investors will be watching closely to see whether the United States’ real-world actions again fall short of Trump’s threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“So far, there has been no fresh escalation in actual fighting in the Middle East,” they said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“All the same, the potential remains for equities to move substantially lower given what oil traders are signalling.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other side of the fuel price, the rand, has also come under pressure due to the threat of the blockade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand weakened on Monday as investors reacted to a US-Iran standoff, hitting R16.53 to the dollar. While this is a far stretch from the R17\/$ hit before the ceasefire, it shows a weakening trajectory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a research note, ETM Analytics said that the escalation is a significant inflationary threat to South Africa. The country is already grappling with high fuel costs and energy security concerns, it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The crisis now threatens to raise import costs, disrupt tanker routes previously protected by its friendly status with Iran, and, in turn, intensify domestic inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“The rand will come under pressure, and South Africa’s alignment with Iran appears increasingly unhelpful,” it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“One could extend this argument to the broader BRICS+ bloc, which has offered limited support to Iran and is unlikely to provide meaningful backing to South Africa.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reporting with Bloomberg and Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Leaning into market fears that a ceasefire between the United States and Iran might be short-lived, a Sunday order by US President Donald Trump has sent oil prices over $100 a barrel once again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":855830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[2835,2923,3670],"class_list":["post-856971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-oil","tag-petrol-prices","tag-rand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=856971"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856971\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":857005,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856971\/revisions\/857005"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/855830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=856971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=856971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=856971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}