{"id":857219,"date":"2026-04-15T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=857219"},"modified":"2026-04-15T11:13:02","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T09:13:02","slug":"here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-may-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/857219\/here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-may-8\/","title":{"rendered":"Here is the expected petrol price for May"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Mid-month projections from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show that motorists and other fuel users are in for more pain in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest data shows that petrol prices are building an under-recovery of between R2.62 and R2.99 per litre, while diesel is showing an under-recovery of between R9.05 and R9.07 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While these under-recoveries are much lower than where they started at the beginning of the month (R8 and R17 per litre for petrol and diesel, respectively), they remain significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Specifically, a R9-per-litre hike in diesel prices would push the wholesale price above R35 per litre in May, shattering the record set in April 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wholesale diesel prices climbed to R26.11 (0.005%, inland) in April, beating the previous record of R25.53 in July 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While petrol avoided hitting its highest-ever point\u2014reaching R23.36, versus R26.74 per litre in July 2022 (petrol 95)\u2014the current projection is for it to land close to that point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the National Treasury reintroduces the R3.00 per litre fuel levies in May, it will push petrol well past R30.00 a litre and diesel closer to R40.00 a litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at mid-month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 262 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 299 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 905 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase <\/mark>of 907 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 717 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to provide an expected price for the coming month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The daily snapshots from the CEF are also not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the data provides a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects current market trends for the first half of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It does not factor in external interventions, such as the government&#8217;s April fuel levy cut or the possible reintroduction of the levy in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-recoveries-15-April-2026.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"170\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-recoveries-15-April-2026-1024x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-857227\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-recoveries-15-April-2026-1024x170.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-recoveries-15-April-2026-300x50.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-recoveries-15-April-2026-768x127.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-recoveries-15-April-2026.jpg 1182w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil prices are still hitting hard<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The key contributor to the under-recovery is the global oil price, which accounts for the bulk of the projection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the rand is trading relatively weaker to the US dollar, its contribution to the under-recovery is much smaller, at between 13 and 23 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand saw a large swing before and after the US war in Iran, trading below R16\/$ amid a shift in global sentiment and more risk-on behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, after the bombings at the end of February, the local unit crumbled to over R17\/$ in the market chaos that followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More recently, as the United States and Iran have at least moved towards peace talks and resolution, the rand has stabilised somewhat, though at a higher point than before the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand is currently trading around R16.30\/$, having depreciated overall, hence the under-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices have been the real shock. Before the war, oil was facing a year of oversupply and growing, but stable demand, selling at under $60 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following the United States&#8217; actions, prices surged to over $110 a barrel, with supply chains and logistics heavily disrupted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The surge in prices in March led to hefty fuel price hikes in April, and trade in April has been volatile, with the disruptions baked into May&#8217;s recoveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop, energy prices have been lower since the start of the month, with hopes rising for a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil has dropped back to around $95 a barrel\u2014but this position is shaky and subject to change as conditions in the Middle East do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the conflict can be resolved more quickly, restoring stability and confidence in the markets, local under-recoveries could ease\u2014though it is highly unlikely to swing into positive territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, should conditions deteriorate and tensions flare, prices could easily move in the opposite direction, pushing oil higher once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-movements-15-April-2026.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-movements-15-April-2026-1024x713.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-857226\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-movements-15-April-2026-1024x713.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-movements-15-April-2026-300x209.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-movements-15-April-2026-768x535.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Fuel-price-movements-15-April-2026.jpg 1166w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fuel taxes still a concern<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless of markets, a key test for South Africa will be how the National Treasury and the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources handle the reintroduction of fuel levies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treasury cut fuel levies by R3.00 per litre in April, a move set to expire in May. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finance minister Enoch Godongwana made it clear that the intervention, which cost the fiscus R6 billion, would have to be budget neutral and recovered in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If this is recovered immediately, fuel users could see May&#8217;s prices shoot up by an additional R3\/litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the department opts for a staggered approach, it could see the relief extended by several months, with the levy added back in stages, as was the case in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However the taxes are reintroduced, fuel users will have to pay the price eventually, with every delay adding to more pain further down the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Expected petrol and diesel price changes for May<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Note:<\/strong> We have included an additional projection with the fuel levy reintroduced, though this is subject to change at the government&#8217;s discretion.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Inland<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>April Official<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>May Expected<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+ R3.00 Fuel Levy<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>93 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R23.25<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.87<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R28.87<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>95 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R23.36<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.35<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R29.35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.90<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R34.95<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R37.95<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.11<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R35.18<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R38.18<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Illuminating Paraffin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R24.21<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R31.38<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Coastal<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>April Official<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>May Expected<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><strong>+ R3.00 Fuel Levy<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>93 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R22.46<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.08<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R28.08<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>95 Petrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R22.53<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.52<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R28.52<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.07<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R34.12<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R37.12<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.35<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R34.42<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R37.42<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Illuminating Paraffin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R23.19<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R30.36<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mid-month projections from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show that motorists and other fuel users are in for more pain in May.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":856572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[19853,9068,22148,1122,1891,22860,2923,2342,10022],"class_list":["post-857219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-annabel-bishop","tag-central-energy-fund","tag-diesel-prices","tag-iran","tag-middle-east","tag-oil-prices","tag-petrol-prices","tag-treasury","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/857219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=857219"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/857219\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":857233,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/857219\/revisions\/857233"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/856572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=857219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=857219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=857219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}