{"id":857487,"date":"2026-04-17T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T07:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=857487"},"modified":"2026-04-17T09:54:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T07:54:26","slug":"big-turn-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/857487\/big-turn-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Big turn for petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Data from the Central Energy fund for the end of the second full week of April shows a positive trend for fuel price recoveries, but nowhere near enough to save motorists from another massive hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the CEF&#8217;s latest snapshot, under-recoveries for petrol and diesel have trended lower over the past two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After starting the review period with an under-recovery of R7.88 per litre for petrol 95 and R17.57 for diesel (0.005% sulphur), these values have more than halved since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol is showing an under-recovery of between R2.29 and R2.63 per litre, down 67% from the start of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, diesel has pulled back to an under-recovery of around R8.05 per litre, down 54% over the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projected levels at the end of week 2:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.29 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.63 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R8.06 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase <\/mark>of R8.07 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R6.52 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to provide an expected price for the coming month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the data shows a significant swing from the start of the month, market volatility around the war in the Middle East remains a major determining factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The CEF data shows that the price of international petroleum products (driven by oil prices) is the biggest contributor to the under-recovery, accounting for over 95% of the shortfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that the forward path for recoveries hinges on the oil market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop, energy price drops are also being limited by uncertainty, as markets are not yet sure the ceasefire in the Middle East will hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, infrastructure has been damaged, supply routes are still impeded, allowing fuel prices to only inch down slowly\u2014contrasting the near-immediate surge seen at the start of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bishop said that the final under-recoveries will be crucial for the fuel price change on 6 May, with another two weeks to go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During this time, news is also expected from the government on its interventions, with economists keeping a close eye on developments with the National Treasury&#8217;s direct fuel relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Petrol 95 <a href=\"https:\/\/topauto.co.za\/fuel-price-predictor\/\">daily projections<\/a> (for May 2026)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Petrol-95-week-2-v2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"813\" height=\"426\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Petrol-95-week-2-v2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-857498\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Petrol-95-week-2-v2.jpg 813w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Petrol-95-week-2-v2-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Petrol-95-week-2-v2-768x402.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 813px) 100vw, 813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Diesel (0.005%) wholesale <a href=\"https:\/\/topauto.co.za\/fuel-price-predictor\/\">daily projections<\/a> (for May 2026)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Diesel-0.005-week-2-v2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"811\" height=\"433\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Diesel-0.005-week-2-v2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-857499\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Diesel-0.005-week-2-v2.jpg 811w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Diesel-0.005-week-2-v2-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Diesel-0.005-week-2-v2-768x410.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 811px) 100vw, 811px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Room for more relief in May and June<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa has enough fiscal space to extend a fuel-tax cut by two months to cushion consumers from the oil shock triggered by the Iran war, Citigroup Inc. said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The relief would likely cost the government between R10 billion and R12 billion, Gina Schoeman, the bank\u2019s country economist, said in Johannesburg on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe can see a staggered reduction of the fuel price levy for at least another month, if not another two,\u201d Schoeman said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThat is certainly feasible in terms of fiscal space,\u201d she said, citing prudent spending, an expected revenue windfall from mining taxes, and the National Treasury\u2019s ability to tap contingency reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa\u2019s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana joined counterparts from other oil-importing nations from&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-13\/zambia-to-take-100-million-hit-to-counter-iran-war-fuel-shock\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Zambia<\/a>&nbsp;to Kenya in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-31\/south-africa-to-lower-fuel-levy-as-gasoline-price-spike-looms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">offering relief<\/a>&nbsp;to consumers after crude prices surged following the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israel war with Iran. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He cut the fuel levy by R3.00 per litre for both petrol and diesel this month. Oil prices have risen by almost a third since the conflict began on 28 February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Treasury said it would forgo R6 billion in revenue because of the measure, offsetting the shortfall within the fiscal framework approved in the 2026 budget. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is also working on a broader package of measures to support households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The oil price surge is likely to push up inflation. Consumer prices rose 3% in February, in line with the central bank\u2019s target, and are expected to peak at 4.3% in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-15\/kganyago-cites-zulu-war-to-signal-preemptive-strike-on-inflation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Wednesday<\/a>&nbsp;said policymakers should respond to the inflation shock from the Iran war by ensuring it remains temporary rather than entrenched.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>With Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Data from the Central Energy fund for the end of the second full week of April shows a positive trend for fuel price recoveries, but nowhere near enough to save motorists from another massive hike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":714644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[19853,8995,7797,19909,2171],"class_list":["post-857487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-annabel-bishop","tag-cef","tag-citi-group","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/857487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=857487"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/857487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":857501,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/857487\/revisions\/857501"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/714644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=857487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=857487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=857487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}