{"id":858633,"date":"2026-04-28T17:10:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T15:10:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=858633"},"modified":"2026-04-28T17:10:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T15:10:31","slug":"end-of-a-60-year-era-for-global-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/858633\/end-of-a-60-year-era-for-global-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"End of a 60-year era for global oil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC, dealing a blow to the group and its leader, Saudi Arabia, as the global oil industry grapples with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE\u2019s exit on 1 May after six decades of membership is a significant loss for the group, which has spent years balancing global oil markets and defending prices by managing crude supplies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the conflict erupted, the country was OPEC\u2019s third-biggest producer, accounting for roughly 12% of the group\u2019s overall supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The move is also the latest indication of how the war in Iran will reshape global energy markets for years to come. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the UAE has talked in the past about quitting OPEC amid longstanding tensions with Saudi Arabia, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is a decision that we took after a very careful and long review of all our strategies\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe decision is taken at the right time in our view because it\u2019s not going to hugely impact the market: the market is undersupplied.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE believes that the shortages caused by the war will require agility to respond to market demands without being constrained by the collective decision-making process of the wider group, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The departure follows years of tension with the leader of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), neighbouring Saudi Arabia, both over oil output policy and competition for regional political influence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials at OPEC\u2019s secretariat in Vienna and the Saudi Energy Ministry didn\u2019t immediately respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two had clashed occasionally at OPEC+ meetings as the UAE sought to deploy new investments in oil production capacity, while Riyadh pressed the group to restrain supply. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such disagreements had brought Abu Dhabi to the brink of quitting OPEC before, though it never followed through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Structurally Weaker<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe longer-term implication is a structurally-weaker OPEC,\u201d said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy who previously worked at the OPEC secretariat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOutside the group, the UAE would have both the incentive and the ability to increase production, raising broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia\u2019s role as the market\u2019s central stabiliser.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other countries have left the organisation in recent years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Angola quit at the end of 2023 after its output declined and the group\u2019s leaders sought to impose a reduced production quota. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ecuador departed in 2020 as its output fell, while in 2018, minor producer Qatar quit to focus on building its natural gas sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US President Donald Trump has also repeatedly criticised OPEC over the years for its efforts to support oil prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the immediate future, the impact of the UAE\u2019s departure will likely be limited, as war between the US and Iran throttles exports from the Persian Gulf \u2014 forcing the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and others to slash production rather than increase it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil futures are trading near $111 a barrel in London.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the war erupted, OPEC+ had been in the process of reviewing the capacity of individual members, with a view to setting next year\u2019s output quotas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE was also one of the only OPEC+ nations, alongside Saudi Arabia, with spare production capacity to bring to the market \u2014 at least on paper. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It held about 660,000 barrels a day idle, according to the IEA, though several analysts and traders believed Abu Dhabi was already near its maximum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE\u2019s state-run oil giant, Adnoc, has put the country\u2019s oil production capacity far higher than other assessments, at 4.85 million barrels a day, close to a planned 5 million-barrel target. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If reached, it would give the country a considerable extra supply to bring to market.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE had been scheduled to attend a monthly video conference on Sunday, along with seven other major OPEC+ members, to discuss plans for gradually restoring production halted several years ago. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC, dealing a blow to the group and its leader, Saudi Arabia, as the global oil industry grapples with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":837090,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[2835,16748,21702],"class_list":["post-858633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-uae"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/858633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=858633"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/858633\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":858636,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/858633\/revisions\/858636"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/837090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=858633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=858633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=858633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}