{"id":865364,"date":"2026-07-03T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=865364"},"modified":"2026-07-03T11:01:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T09:01:55","slug":"r6-per-litre-pain-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/865364\/r6-per-litre-pain-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"R6 per litre pain for petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fuel price recoveries in South Africa at the start of July are setting motorists up for another cut at the pumps in August, but still not enough to fully reverse the huge hikes caused by the Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol prices are on track for another cut of R2.50 per litre, while diesel could be coming down by another R3.51 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While still far too early to make a definitive call on August prices, the over-recoveries at least put pricing on the front foot heading into the new month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the fuel price relief from the National Treasury now fully terminated, the recovery data is the best indicator of where prices are headed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Slate levy adjustments could impact the final pricing, but these would only be determined at month-end and revealed in the official announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the recoveries at the start of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of R2.50 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of R2.50 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of R3.07 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of R3.51 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of R3.43 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The large over-recovery at the start of the month reflects the steep drop in global oil prices following the US and Iran&#8217;s move to negotiate a permanent end to hostilities and open the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While uncertainty and risk in the region remain, markets are optimistic. Oil has crashed from $110-plus highs during the war to around $71 a barrel, with some projecting a drop to pre-war levels around $60.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand, which has remained resilient throughout the war, has stuck to a narrow range above R16 to the dollar. It had been trading under R16\/$ before the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current over-recovery, however, is being driven overwhelmingly by oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should the early over-recoveries carry through to the end of the month, this would be the second cut for petrol since the war broke out, and the third for diesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, even if there is another cut in August, prices would still be off from their pre-war levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuel prices rose sharply after the war broke out at the end of February, with petrol rising by R6.53 per litre between March and May and diesel rising by R13.43 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>June brought some relief for diesel, with wholesale prices cut by R2.62 per litre, but petrol prices jumped by another R1.43 per litre as Treasury relief ended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>July was the first month with cuts for both petrol and diesel, despite the Treasury relief ending completely,  bringing prices down by R1.96 and R3.59 per litre, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the trend turning, <strong>petrol prices are still currently R6.00 per litre higher than before the war<\/strong>, and diesel prices are still R7.22 per litre higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the early projections for August hold, prices would fall closer to pre-war levels but would still be around R3.50 per litre higher than in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Post-Iran War price adjustments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Month<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Petrol 95<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Diesel 0.005%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>March<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R0.20<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R0.65<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>April<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R3.06<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R7.51<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R3.27<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R5.27<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>June<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R1.43<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R2.62<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>July<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R1.96<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R3.59<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total difference<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R6.00<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R7.22<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>August (current recovery)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><em>-R<\/em>2.50<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><em>-R<\/em>3.51<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong><em>Projected difference<\/em><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><em>+R3.50<\/em><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><em>+R3.71<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pressure on inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Lesetja.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Lesetja-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-852749\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Lesetja-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Lesetja-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Lesetja-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Lesetja.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While it appears that fuel prices are normalising\u2014albeit falling more slowly than they rose\u2014the reality is that prices are elevated for longer, putting pressure on inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has been reflected in economic data out this past week, as well as projections from economists and analysts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, the latest inflation expectations reading from the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) showed that projections two years ahead rose to 3.9% from 3.6%, previously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The increase was the first in more than a year. The survey is also one of the measures closely watched by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) when making its interest rate decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reading prompted economists at Goldman Sachs and Oxford Economics to anticipate another interest rate hike in July, running against local views that the central bank would hold and hike later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The SARB raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.00% at its last meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet again later this month and deliver its next decision on 23 July. Forward-rate agreements are pricing in an 88% chance of a 25bp hike and another increase by January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cFrom a monetary policy perspective, the rise in inflation expectations is unwelcome, and we think it solidifies the case for a 25-basis-point rate hike in July, which we expect to be unanimous,\u201d said Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Matheny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Headline inflation has been spiking alongside fuel prices, with CPI rising to 4.0% in April 2026 and then rising further (but better than expected) to 4.5% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>June&#8217;s CPI reading is expected to be higher still, at around 4.8%, but could peak and then start falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Current projections are for inflation to average 4% in 2026\u2014at the limit of the SARB&#8217;s 3% target with one percentage point flexibility\u2014falling to 3.2% in 2027 and 3.0% in 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Reporting with Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol prices are still a ways off from pre-war levels, but the fall is happening.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":856572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,2171],"class_list":["post-865364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=865364"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":865382,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865364\/revisions\/865382"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/856572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=865364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=865364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=865364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}