{"id":865559,"date":"2026-07-06T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=865559"},"modified":"2026-07-06T13:42:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T11:42:22","slug":"severe-weather-update-for-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/865559\/severe-weather-update-for-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Severe weather update for South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While South Africa will be hit by severe El Ni\u00f1o conditions this year, AgriBiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo says the impact could be mitigated by higher-than-usual rainfall over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without downplaying the severity of the El Ni\u00f1o, Sihlobo said that the country should not panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is because La Ni\u00f1a rains over the past few years have boosted certain crop yields and increased soil moisture, putting South Africa in a good position to face the looming droughts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a weather pattern often associated with drought in southern Africa and can have serious consequences for agriculture, food prices, inflation, and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest report from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre confirmed that El Ni\u00f1o conditions are present<\/strong><\/a>, and that equatorial sea surface temperatures are above average across the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned that the conditions are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following confirmation that El Ni\u00f1o is present and appears particularly severe, economists and analysts have been warning of its impact on South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The severe weather threatens harvests, livestock, water supplies and food production, and can lead to lower yields and higher prices, feeding food inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has also flagged the issue as one of the inflation risk factors it is watching in determining its monetary policy moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The El Ni\u00f1o poses a particular threat to South Africa\u2019s maize harvest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maize is one of the country\u2019s most important staple foods, and the crop is especially vulnerable to adverse weather conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, while noting the various “understandable” warnings from his peers, Sihlobo said there is a broader context at play due to La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a is effectively the opposite of El Ni\u00f1o, where sea temperatures cool over the Pacific Ocean, bringing wetter conditions to southern Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Sihlobo, South Africa has experienced a prolonged La Ni\u00f1a, which has supported the local agricultural sector over the past few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don’t panic<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land and Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Wandile Sihlobo.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sihlobo said the El Ni\u00f1o will coincide with South Africa\u2019s 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in mid-October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, South Africa has been experiencing rainfall patterns much longer than typical periods, where summer rain has pushed through to May, when they usually end in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Ordinarily, such longer rainfall periods would raise concerns about crop quality, but in the areas that harvested the 2025-26 crops, we haven\u2019t seen many quality issues,” Sihlobo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“In fact, the Crop Estimates Committee\u2019s latest projections were revised higher and still point to a record summer crop harvest for 2025-26.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The longer rainfall season benefited the country by improving soil moisture and the water table ahead of the 2026-27 summer crop season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when the planting period starts in October 2026, farmers across South Africa will have better-than-normal soil moisture to begin with, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Therefore, there may be sufficient soil moisture to support seed germination and crop development across the country, even as El Ni\u00f1o conditions likely result in below-normal rainfall.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another factor at play is that South Africa is having its largest-ever summer grain and oilseed crop in the 2025-26 season, Sihlobo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This puts South Africa in an opportune position regarding grain supplies heading into next year,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Even with large exports, there is a strong chance that we will enter the new season and year with large supplies.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The economist noted that caution is warranted and worries are understandable, but stressed that at the moment, there appears to be no need to panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The drought is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers, but we can\u2019t view it the same way as previous droughts,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“There are clear factors here that may shape this upcoming season more than the last droughts did.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AgriBiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo says the looming super-El Ni\u00f1o’s impact on South Africa could be mitigated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":864696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"idle","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[25744,25745,21374],"class_list":["post-865559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-opinion","tag-el-nino-2","tag-la-nina","tag-wandile-sihlobo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=865559"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865559\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":865564,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865559\/revisions\/865564"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/864696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=865559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=865559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=865559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}