{"id":866521,"date":"2026-07-16T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=866521"},"modified":"2026-07-16T14:02:05","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T12:02:05","slug":"bad-news-for-anyone-driving-diesel-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/866521\/bad-news-for-anyone-driving-diesel-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Really bad news for anyone driving diesel in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Chief investment strategist at Symmetry, Izak Odendaal, has warned that diesel prices are likely to climb in August, despite the small over-recovery currently reflected in the Central Energy Fund’s data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest update from the CEF shows that diesel prices are currently sitting with an over-recovery of between 22 and 47 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this over-recovery has been gradually shrinking since the start of July and has more rapidly receded in recent days as the conflict between the United States and Iran flared up once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Odendaal, this flare-up spells disaster for diesel prices in particular, as the current over-recovery “will be overwhelmed by the daily under-recovery of around R3.71 per litre” tied to the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that the global diesel shortage was already building even before the war reignited, “largely due to developments in Russia”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While a swing in the diesel price\u2014from an over-recovery to an under-recovery\u2014would be felt by motorists directly, the shift would also impact the economy as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This is bad news for businesses that rely on diesel, including farmers,” Odendaal said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is because diesel is still most widely used by industry, increasing the operating costs of producers, manufacturers, logistics and transport, all along the supply chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The higher costs will then be passed on to consumer prices, adding even more pressure on inflation and the cost of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will also then factor into how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) determine interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SARB is already expected to keep hiking rates, with economists and analysts divided on whether the hikes will be front-loaded (i.e., another 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting) or pushed to later in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MPC will meet next week to deliver its verdict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worse may be yet to come<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Even with a possible hike in diesel prices for August, concerns remain that the price pressure may persist beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the United States relaunching its attacks on Iran, global oil prices have shot up to around $85 a barrel after moving towards $70 a barrel when peace was on the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The surge in prices has come as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has again shut down, with both Iran and the US seeking to control it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has become the focal point of the war, with Iran closing off passage and the US re-setting up its naval blockade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran seems in no mood to back down in the face of US President Donald Trump\u2019s warning that he\u2019ll escalate strikes until the Strait is reopened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs long as the United States does not accept the Iranian legal system, this strait will remain closed,\u201d a spokesman for Iran\u2019s army said, according to a report from the semi-official Iranian Students\u2019 News Agency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was likely a reference to Tehran\u2019s demand that ships seek its permission before sailing through Hormuz and abide by its rules, including the imposition of any service fees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US has launched attacks against mostly military sites in the south of the Islamic Republic, such as radar, missile and drone facilities. It has threatened to attack infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bombing campaign remains far less intense than during the height of the war in March and early April, when Tehran and other major cities were\u00a0under constant fire<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts believe that, without further escalation, the oil price would remain above $80 a barrel until peace talks resume. However, with escalation, the price could push above $90 a barrel once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop said that the war has become part of the global market background, and further escalation\u2014and oil at $120 a barrel\u2014are not expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“There is international pressure for the flare-up to be short-lived with a return to peace negotiations and the avoidance of the war widening into the region,” she said, adding that this is the expected case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, “risks remain, and so too for the economic growth outlook,” she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chief investment strategist at Symmetry, Izak Odendaal, has warned that diesel prices are likely to climb in August, despite the small over-recovery currently reflected in the Central Energy Fund’s data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":856044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"posted","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"2077725192504115551","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[22148,19941],"class_list":["post-866521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-diesel-prices","tag-izak-odendaal"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=866521"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":866544,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866521\/revisions\/866544"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/856044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=866521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=866521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=866521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}