{"id":866590,"date":"2026-07-17T09:28:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T07:28:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=866590"},"modified":"2026-07-17T09:38:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T07:38:25","slug":"from-joy-to-pain-for-petrol-and-diesel-prices-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/866590\/from-joy-to-pain-for-petrol-and-diesel-prices-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"From joy to pain for petrol and diesel prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As some analysts predicted, diesel price recoveries in South Africa have swung into negative territory, with petrol price recoveries heading in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data from the Central Energy Fund for the end of the third week in July shows that diesel price recoveries have turned negative, with a price hike now building for Diesel of 0.05% (500ppm).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recoveries for Diesel 0.005% (50 ppm)\u2014more commonly used by passenger vehicles and more modern models\u2014are still showing an over-recovery, but only marginally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel 0.05% is used by most commercial vehicles, ranging from tractors to heavy trucks, which will have a wider impact on industry and the supply chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices are also still showing an over-recovery, but this is shrinking, having buckled by about R1.50 per litre since the start of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the recoveries at the end of the week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of R1.07 per litre <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of R1.03 per litre <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of 1 cent per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 24 cents per litre <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark> of 22 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is how recoveries have shifted this month-to-date (MTD):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Fuel<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">July starting <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">over<\/mark><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(under) <\/mark>recovery<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Current <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">over<\/mark><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(under) <\/mark>recovery<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">MTD Change<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Petrol 93<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R2.50<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R1.07<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(R1.43)<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Petrol 95<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R2.50<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R1.03<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(R1.47)<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.05%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R3.07<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(R0.01)<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(R3.08)<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diesel 0.005%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R3.51<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R0.24<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(R3.27)<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Illuminating Paraffin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R3.43<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">R0.22<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">(R3.21)<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The swing was predicted by Chief Investment Strategist at Symmetry, Izak Odendaal, who noted that the over-recoveries that had been building since the start of the month were being offset by a daily under-recovery of around R3.71 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The under-recovery has been attributed to the rising global oil price, which has shot up to around $85 a barrel since the war between the United States and Iran reignited earlier in the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop also noted that a R3 per litre over-recovery in the petrol price had also dropped to R1 per litre for the same reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Petrol 93 changes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/petrol-93.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"787\" height=\"472\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/petrol-93.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-866593\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/petrol-93.png 787w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/petrol-93-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/petrol-93-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 787px) 100vw, 787px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Petrol 95 changes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"787\" height=\"472\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-866595\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16.png 787w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 787px) 100vw, 787px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Diesel 0.05% changes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Diesel-500ppm-projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"787\" height=\"472\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Diesel-500ppm-projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-866594\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Diesel-500ppm-projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1.png 787w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Diesel-500ppm-projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Diesel-500ppm-projected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 787px) 100vw, 787px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Diesel 0.005% changes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/diesel-50ppmprojected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"787\" height=\"472\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/diesel-50ppmprojected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-866592\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/diesel-50ppmprojected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1.png 787w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/diesel-50ppmprojected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/diesel-50ppmprojected-fuel-price-chart-2026-07-16-1-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 787px) 100vw, 787px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg analysts, the price crunch from the Middle East conflict is being exacerbated by troubles in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuel markets in the US and Europe are flashing record tightness, raising the risk of higher costs for consumers already under strain, it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The squeeze coincides with a plunge in Russian exports after Ukraine attacked the country\u2019s refineries and prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets remain generally on edge, with the baseline still being that a deal between the United States and Iran will be struck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, there has been a shift in market focus from the chance of a diplomatic breakthrough to questioning whether oil will be able to flow again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For South Africa&#8217;s fuel recoveries, that means uncertainty persists, and prices risk swinging deeper into the red in the last two weeks of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While a swing in prices\u2014from an over-recovery to an under-recovery\u2014would be felt directly by motorists, the shift would also affect the economy as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price increases mean higher operating costs for producers, manufacturers, logistics, and transport across the entire supply chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The higher costs will then be passed on to consumer prices, adding even more pressure on inflation and the cost of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A smaller cut for petrol and a possible hike for diesel will also slow down or stem the recovery in prices to pre-war levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As things stand, petrol prices are still R6 per litre higher than when the war began, with diesel prices more than R7 per litre higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At current recovery levels, the August changes would hardly make a dent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Post-Iran War price adjustments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Month<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Petrol 95<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Diesel 0.005%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>March<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R0.20<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R0.65<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>April<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R3.06<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R7.51<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R3.27<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R5.27<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>June<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R1.43<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R2.62<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>July<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R1.96<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R3.59<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total difference<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R6.00<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R7.22<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>August (current recovery)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><em>-R1.02<\/em><\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><em>-R0.24<\/em><\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong><em>Projected difference<\/em><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><em>+R4.98<\/em><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><em>+R6.98<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As some analysts predicted, diesel price recoveries in South Africa have swung into negative territory, with petrol price recoveries rapidly heading in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":840915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"posted","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"2078019127151636751","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[9068,19909,2171],"class_list":["post-866590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-central-energy-fund","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=866590"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":866602,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866590\/revisions\/866602"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/840915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=866590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=866590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=866590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}