For diesel, the same story is unfolding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After starting the month at an under-recovery of R5 per litre, mid-month showed a significant reduction to around R2.80 per litre. Under-recoveries are now back up to R3 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are the recoveries at the end of week three:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Petrol 93:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R0.83 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Petrol 95:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R0.94 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong>increase<\/mark> of R2.87 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R3.07 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong>increase<\/mark> of R2.24 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The reversal in the recovery path is due to the ongoing war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After moving towards a peaceful resolution at the end of June 2026, the war reignited in mid-July when peace talks collapsed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since then, Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, exchanging fire with the United States’ naval blockage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before the war reignited, global oil prices were heading to below $70 a barrel as shipping started to pick up through the Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, as the passageway shut down, oil pushed toward $100 a barrel again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some ships have managed to move through the Strait, which tempered some of the shock and kept prices in a range of $80-$90 a barrel for weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prices shot up past these levels\u2014now trading at close to $94 a barrel\u2014as the Trump Administration prepares for its next economic salvo, which could include sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Bloomberg, the administration is expected to give details of an “economic D-day” initiative next week that would target Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, it could also ensnare countries that deal with the Islamic Republic, possibly including China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The risk of getting embroiled in another economic war with Beijing\u2014by far the largest importer of Iranian oil\u2014has spurred further uncertainty and turmoil in global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the economic impact of the war continues to reverberate throughout the world, including South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Saving grace<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Rand-coin-00-1-1024x576.jpg\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nThe one saving grace for local fuel price recoveries has been the rand\u2014but not enough to significantly offset the impact of global oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While higher oil prices are contributing the bulk of the under-recovery, at R1 and R3 per litre for petrol and diesel, respectively, the rand is cutting this back by 13-19 cents per litre due to its strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand is currently trading at R16.05 to the dollar, testing the R16\/$ resistance level it last broke through before the US-Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The local unit has had an extremely resilient year, reversing losses seen at the outbreak of the war and largely shrugging off market volatility since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand got a huge boost this week from the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which expressed concern over inflation and upside risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This, in turn, has led markets to price out future rate hikes in the US this year, weakening the dollar and strengthening the rand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The stronger currency is also being supported by firmer local economic fundamentals and a boost from commodities, with gold prices edging higher and remaining on course for a third weekly gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the stronger rand, the under-recovery from oil is overwhelming, with no reversal in sight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fuel price recoveries have almost completely erased the gains from the last few weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":855633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"failed","_sma_x_autopost_error":"Instagram publishing failed: Instagram returned HTTP 400: Media ID is not available","_sma_x_post_id":"2090711259666595858","_sma_facebook_post_id":"191437357620492_2182369369250129","_sma_instagram_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[19909,2171],"class_list":["post-871269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-diesel-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/871269","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=871269"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/871269\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":871485,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/871269\/revisions\/871485"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/855633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=871269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=871269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=871269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- Petrol 95:<\/strong> increase<\/mark> of R0.94 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n