According to SAWS, the latest weekly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean are already above the threshold that designates a very strong El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMost El Ni\u00f1o events bring below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region,” said SAWS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Two of the most impactful El Ni\u00f1o events for the region were those of 1982\/83 and 2015\/16, which brought widespread drought.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SAWS said that the strong El Ni\u00f1o event of 1997\/98 was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa\u2019s summer rainfall region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“It should therefore be noted that, although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every El Ni\u00f1o event is associated with drought,” said SAWS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The weather service’s most recent forecast for October to December 2026 indicates that less rainfall is expected across many parts of South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe rainfall and temperature forecast for November 2026 to January 2027 is very similar to that for October to December 2026, with drier and warmer conditions over most of the country the most likely outcome,” said the weather service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt should be noted that the expected very strong 2026\/27 El Ni\u00f1o event, combined with global warming, will likely result in 2027 being the warmest year ever recorded<\/strong>.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n SAWS said the 2015\/16 El Ni\u00f1o event brought unprecedented heatwaves across southern Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThese heatwaves have the potential to be severe. However, as current forecasts indicate the potential for an exceptionally strong El Ni\u00f1o, uncertainty remains about its eventual strength and regional impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFor this reason, the extent of expected heatwaves and water scarcity associated with the event will be closely monitored and communicated to disaster management structures, weather-sensitive industries, the media and the public,\u201d SAWS said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The weather service has advised the public and weather-sensitive industries to follow monthly seasonal forecast updates and daily short-term weather forecasts to prepare for heatwave conditions and other high-impact weather events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Earlier this year, risk experts warned that the drier conditions caused by El Ni\u00f1o could create the ideal conditions for wildfires across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Past El Ni\u00f1o events have had devastating consequences for the country’s agricultural sector, which relies on consistent rainfall to thrive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Between 2014 and 2016, many regions experienced drought conditions that significantly decreased food production. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Maize farming was particularly hard-hit, with only 8.9 million tonnes produced, while the annual demand is approximately 12 million tonnes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Other crops also suffered during this period, leading to a notable decline in production across most farming operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSouth Africa is a fire risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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