{"id":873335,"date":"2026-09-02T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=873335"},"modified":"2026-09-02T12:47:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:47:24","slug":"another-huge-petrol-price-hike-on-the-cards-for-south-africa-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/873335\/another-huge-petrol-price-hike-on-the-cards-for-south-africa-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"More bad news for petrol prices in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With higher petrol and diesel prices kicking in from Wednesday (2 September), early fuel price recovery data for October shows that the pain for motorists is not yet over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) as of the start of September 2026, fuel price recoveries are again on the back foot, deep in the red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices are starting with an under-recovery between R2.11 and R2.22 per litre, while diesel is showing an under-recovery of between R2.83 and R3.11 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the recoveries at the start of the month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.11 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.22 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.83 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.11 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.73 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While it is still far too early in the review period to make a call with any certainty, the starting data shows a difficult path ahead for the trend to reverse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, if current market conditions persist\u2014with global oil prices above $90 per barrel and no end in sight to the United States-Iran War\u2014the recovery trend is unlikely to reverse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, there is still time for fortunes to swing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In August, the month also started on the back foot but moved towards a neutral (no increase) position around the middle of the month as tensions in the Middle East eased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This was undone by escalations in the war, which have persisted since then, resulting in the steep fuel price hikes for September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This demonstrates the volatility of market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately for motorists, for any meaningful reversal, there would have to be a significant change in the course of the war as well as global oil prices, which analysts deem unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil is currently trading near the highest closing level in over a month as hostilities broke out again between the US and Iran, renewing the threat to energy exports from the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil is trading at $95 a barrel and moving toward the $100 level, which it reached after the peace talks initially collapsed in mid-July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have not stopped entirely\u2014as was the case when the war first broke out at the end of February\u2014but have been severely limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These energy issues have been exacerbated by supply issues emanating from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has stretched global diesel supplies to their limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The rand is helping, but not much<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rand-.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rand--1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-858706\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rand--1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rand--300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rand--768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rand--1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rand-.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The one saving grace in the fuel price recovery picture remains the rand, which is currently the only force offsetting the under-recovery in oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand is trading at R16.15 per dollar, maintaining its surprising and uncharacteristic stability and resilience amid global conflicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While weaker than a week ago, the rand\/dollar exchange is still contributing an over-recovery of 11 to 14 cents per litre in prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The unit had traded below the R16\/$ resistance level due to dollar weakness, but reversed in the past week after a Hawkish US Federal Reserve statement put interest rates back on the forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, the rand has largely shaken off the turmoil in global markets and has room to strengthen further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investec\u2019s scenario modelling base case assumes the rand will maintain its strength, averaging R15.90 in the final quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is expected to strengthen further heading into the new year, but settle in a R15.75-R16.00\/$ range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the near term, however, the rand&#8217;s surprising run is nowhere near enough to offset the oil price surge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should current conditions continue, fuel prices in October could be as much as R9 per litre higher than before the war, while diesel prices would approach R15 per litre more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Post-Iran War price adjustments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Month<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Petrol 95<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Diesel 0.005%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>March<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R0.20<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R0.65<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>April<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R3.06<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R7.51<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R3.27<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R5.27<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>June<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R1.43<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R2.62<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>July<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R1.96<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R3.59<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>August<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">-R0.52<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R1.23<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>September<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R1.34<\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">+R3.15<\/mark><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total difference<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R6.82<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R11.60<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>October (projected)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">+R2.22<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">+R3.11<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total projected difference<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R9.04<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>+R14.71<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Early fuel price recovery data for October shows that the pain for motorists is not yet over.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":858450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"posted","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"2095089610279804955","_sma_facebook_post_id":"191437357620492_2193690988117967","_sma_instagram_post_id":"18112199815822186","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[19909,18450,2171,3670],"class_list":["post-873335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-diesel-price","tag-oil-price","tag-petrol-price","tag-rand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=873335"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873335\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":873370,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873335\/revisions\/873370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/858450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=873335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=873335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=873335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}