{"id":876995,"date":"2026-09-25T12:39:51","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T10:39:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=876995"},"modified":"2026-09-25T12:39:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T10:39:54","slug":"r3-per-litre-pain-for-petrol-prices-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/876995\/r3-per-litre-pain-for-petrol-prices-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"R3 per litre pain for petrol prices in October"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The under-recovery for petrol prices in South Africa has hit the R3-per-litre mark, setting motorists up for almost R30-per-litre at the pump in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) has painted a bleak picture for motorists next month, as higher oil prices and a weaker rand have pushed recoveries deep into the red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices have sat over $100 a barrel for most of the month, dipping below that level for only a few days as markets adjusted expectations around the war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand\/dollar exchange, while still making a positive contribution to recoveries, has dimmed this past week, losing its edge in global trade as interest rate hikes kicked in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of the week, petrol price under-recoveries have climbed to R3.01 per litre for Petrol 95 and R2.82 per litre for Petrol 93.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel under-recoveries have also deepened, now sitting at R3.08 per litre for 0.005% sulphur and R2.68 per litre for 0.05% sulphur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.82 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.01 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.68 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.08 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.27 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>With one week left in the review period, motorists are all but guaranteed to see record-level price hikes in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the current recovery levels continue through the end of the month, the petrol price will be only a few cents away from crossing the R30-per-litre mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the daily recovery data gives a strong indicator of what motorists can expect in the new month, they are not the complete picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government may step in with another round of tax relief, sparing motorists the immediate impact of the price hikes, <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/874544\/record-high-petrol-prices-or-pay-higher-taxes-godongwana-says-you-must-pick-one\/\"><strong>but this is unlikely.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other side, the slate levy may again be adjusted upward, adding more taxes to the final amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce only the final adjustments and all relevant inclusions and exclusions a few days before the official change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new prices will kick in on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Month<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Petrol 95 <br>Price<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Diesel 0.005% <br>Price (wholesale)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>March 2026 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.30<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.60<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>April 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R23.36<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.11<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.63<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R31.88<\/mark><\/strong><br>(current record)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>June 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R28.06<\/mark><\/strong> <br>(current record)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R29.26<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>July 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.10<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.67<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>August 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.58<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.90<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>September 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.92<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R30.05<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>October 2026 (projected)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong><em>R29.93<\/em><\/strong><\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong><em>R33.13<\/em><\/strong><\/mark><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil prices going the wrong way<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists had seen some hope for slightly lower under-recoveries earlier this week after the global oil price moved below $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recovery was driven by progress in Saudi Arabia to restore a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, thereby restoring some oil flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There were also positive signs that the United States and Iran would re-engage in peace talks to end the almost 7-month war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While talk of ending the war persists, the market remains full of mixed signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are indications of a pickup in Middle East flows, but there is also speculation that the US may ban diesel exports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts have noted that prices are likely to remain in the $100-$110 a barrel range until there is a material change in the outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If there is a credible deal between the warring nations, prices could fall below $100 a barrel. If there is another collapse or escalation, $120 a barrel could be back in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As things currently stand, markets are unsure of which is more likely. Regardless, prices are more than 70% higher this year, stoking inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has played into central banks&#8217; interest rate decisions over the past week, with the US Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points and the South African Reserve Bank following suit on Wednesday (23 September).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In turn, the rand has suffered, climbing to R16.30 to the dollar as markets digest the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the rand is trading weaker\u2014having moved below R16\/$ earlier in the month\u2014it remains in a relatively resilient position and is contributing positively to recoveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, where the unit was offsetting the under-recoveries by about 15 cents per litre a few weeks ago, it is now only contributing about 6 cents per litre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The under-recovery for petrol prices in South Africa has hit the R3-per-litre mark, setting motorists up for almost R30-per-litre pump prices in October.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":876606,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"posted","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"2103434350113042813","_sma_facebook_post_id":"191437357620492_2216109385876127","_sma_instagram_post_id":"18631898056013071","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,18450,2171],"class_list":["post-876995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-oil-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=876995"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":877000,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876995\/revisions\/877000"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/876606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=876995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=876995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=876995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}