{"id":878108,"date":"2026-10-02T17:06:57","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T15:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=878108"},"modified":"2026-10-02T17:07:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T15:07:43","slug":"south-africa-bracing-for-disaster-next-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/878108\/south-africa-bracing-for-disaster-next-week\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa bracing for disaster next week"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>South Africans will face record-high petrol and diesel prices next week, with month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) all but guaranteeing over R30\/litre at the pumps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The October price review window has closed, with steep under-recoveries for both fuel types.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices have ended at an under-recovery of R3.08 per litre for Petrol 93 and R3.29 per litre for Petrol 95\u2014the latter likely to hit R30.21 per litre barring any other adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diesel prices are worse off, with 0.05% sulphur diesel set for a wholesale price increase of R2.80 per litre, and 0.005% sulphur diesel at R3.19 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The DMPR will announce the official fuel price adjustments ahead of the changes taking effect next Wednesday, 7 October 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The projections below are indicative, not final; the official price changes incorporate other adjustments, such as the slate levy, which could increase or lower the final amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the projections for next week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.08 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.29 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R2.80 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong> <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.19 per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin: <\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark> of R3.57 per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Month<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Petrol 95 <br>Price<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Diesel 0.005% <br>Price (wholesale)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>March 2026 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R20.30<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R18.60<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>April 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R23.36<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.11<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.63<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R31.88<\/mark><\/strong><br>(current record)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>June 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">R28.06<\/mark><\/strong> <br>(current record)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R29.26<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>July 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.10<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.67<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>August 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R25.58<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.90<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>September 2026<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R26.92<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R30.05<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>October 2026 (projected)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong><em>R30.21<\/em><\/strong><\/mark><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong><em>R33.24<\/em><\/strong><\/mark><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuel price recoveries have been battered on both sides of the equation this month, with the small over-recovery from the rand\/dollar exchange evaporating by month-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, the rand has returned to its more characteristic volatility as global markets digest higher oil prices, higher inflation, and higher interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The rand saw noticeable volatility, dropping below R16.00\/USD early in the month before the escalation in the Middle East war, then rising to around R16.40\/USD on the US interest rate hike with concerns over energy prices and inflationary impacts,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She noted that weak global fiscal metrics have seen a more marked reaction to higher interest rates than at other times, with investors visibly risk-averse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the relatively modest nature of foreign sales of South African debt has limited the rand&#8217;s weakness, she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rand weakness was also initially halted by the South African interest rate hike following the US FOMC move, but it has since moved towards R16.70\/$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The weakened rand has crushed the over-recovery in fuel prices from around 15 cents per litre at the start of the month to zero at month-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This leaves the coming hike completely at the whims of global oil prices, which have remained high throughout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Too little, too late<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Rand-oil.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Rand-oil-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-853320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Rand-oil-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Rand-oil-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Rand-oil-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Rand-oil.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In a turn for oil, global prices pulled below $100 a barrel on Friday (2 October) as France proposed that developed nations release strategic reserves to ease surging prices at the pump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>France proposed that countries across the continent and member nations of the International Energy Agency release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, prices remain elevated, and the slight relief from the proposal comes too late to have any meaningful bearing on fuel recoveries for October&#8217;s adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices have remained far from their early-war peaks as transits through the vital Strait of Hormuz have continued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this, prices are high, and fuel shortages are rising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shortages are bolstering crude demand as refineries try to churn out as many barrels as they can, just as demand rises ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Making matters more difficult, Chinese exporters have also cancelled some oil-product cargoes slated for export in October, as Asia\u2019s top consumer prioritises domestic supply. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia, meanwhile, has further extended a ban on most diesel exports through October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means the pricing outlook heading into the final quarter of the year is not positive, with record-high prices expected next week setting a worrying baseline for the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>With Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South Africans will face record-high petrol and diesel prices next week, with month-end data from the CEF all but cementing R30\/litre at the pumps.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":861650,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"posted","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"2106038504496959632","_sma_facebook_post_id":"191437357620492_2224232605063805","_sma_instagram_post_id":"18145911376600906","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[19853,19909,1498,18450,2171],"class_list":["post-878108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-annabel-bishop","tag-diesel-price","tag-investec","tag-oil-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/878108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=878108"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/878108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":878119,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/878108\/revisions\/878119"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/861650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=878108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=878108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=878108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}