Consumer inflation for September 2026 came in cooler than expected at 4.5% year-on-year, only 0.1 percentage point higher than August, despite the massive petrol price hikes last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This, despite a significant increase in petrol and diesel prices for the month, and against market expectations of a reading around 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The latest CPI figure continues the trend of South Africa’s inflation numbers coming in under expectation, and should give the Reserve Bank more impetus to be more conservative around interest rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fuel remained the dominant driver of inflationary pressure, while food inflation remained low, sitting at 1% (versus 0.7% in August).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A positive surprise was rentals, where actual rental inflation slowed from 4.1% to 3.9%, while owners\u2019 equivalent rent eased from 4.0% to 3.8%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to PSG Chief Economist Johann Els, rentals carry a fairly big weighting of around 17% in the CPI basket, so this was significant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Consumer goods inflation is also well contained, unchanged at just 0.6% year on year. This is the weighted average for categories including furniture, clothing, footwear, appliances and vehicles,” Els said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
On fuel, Anchor Capital noted that the US-Iran War and resultant spike in global energy costs will continue to apply pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Transport inflation accelerated to 10.8% y\/y in September, contributing 1.5 percentage points to the headline rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This followed the September fuel price increases of R1.34\/litre for petrol and approximately R3\/litre for diesel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, “September is unlikely to mark the peak in inflation,” the group said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“October’s R3.33\/litre increase in petrol prices, together with the likelihood of a further fuel price increase in November, could push headline inflation above 5% over the coming months.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Central Energy Fund data through 20 October indicates average under-recoveries of approximately R1.52\/litre for petrol 95 and R1.25\/litre for diesel, implying additional upward adjustments at the next fuel price review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anchor added that global oil market risks have also intensified. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Disruptions to shipping routes through the Middle East, ongoing Houthi attacks affecting Red Sea trade, and continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have all contributed to higher oil prices, with Brent crude rising toward US$110 per barrel,” it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the problems is the rand, which has come under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand averaged R16.21\/USD during the review period used for October\u2019s fuel price adjustment, but has since weakened to around R16.43\/USD. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Central Energy Fund estimates, currency weakness currently accounts for roughly 36c\/litre of the petrol under-recovery and 45c\/litre of the diesel under-recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nevertheless, for the South African Reserve Bank, the softer core and services inflation readings strengthen the case for keeping the repo rate unchanged at 7.25% at its 19 November meeting, Anchor said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“However, the SARB anticipates potential second-round effects from higher fuel costs. Any fuel-price relief announced in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement could moderate the eventual inflation peak, but it would be unlikely to materially alter the broader near-term inflation trajectory.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Inflation numbers for September came in lower than markets expected\u2014but the tough times aren’t over yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":876606,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"posted","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"2112840829630808322","_sma_facebook_post_id":"191437357620492_2244237116396687","_sma_instagram_post_id":"18143242096717803","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9876],"tags":[11827,7530,4671,1809],"class_list":["post-880725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lifestyle","tag-anchor-capital","tag-inflation","tag-psg","tag-stats-sa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/880725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=880725"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/880725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":880728,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/880725\/revisions\/880728"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/876606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=880725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=880725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=880725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}