After 13% of the vote counted, the CSIR’s projection put the major parties at these levels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- ANC at 31.7%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- DA at 25.8%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- MK at 9%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- EFF at 6%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- ActionSA at 5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The CSIR’s projections are based on advanced statistical and mathematical techniques and have been used for more than two decades to predict the outcomes of South Africa’s elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since its introduction during South Africa\u2019s 1999 general elections, the model has been successfully used in every national and municipal election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It has also established a strong track record of reliable forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Notably, the first prediction is not the last, as the group’s model continuously incorporates newly declared results, allowing its projections to be refined as counting progresses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CSIR\u2019s election prediction model is based the analysis of historical voting behaviour patterns and an understanding of how voting district results are received and reported during the counting process. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
By combining these, the model groups voting districts with similar characteristics using statistical clustering techniques, enabling it to generate projections before all districts have reported their results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CSIR said that the model has consistently demonstrated a high level of accuracy, often producing stable and representative projections once only a small percentage of voting districts have been declared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“As more results become available, the predictions become increasingly precise, converging with the final election outcomes,” it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It should be noted that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) remains the sole authority responsible for the administration, verification and official declaration of election results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CSIR model provides only independent scientific forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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