At the close of the day on Thursday, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) had counted 67.5% of the votes, with the national picture aligning with the CSIR’s call.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The ANC continues to hold its lead over the DA at 31.7% of total votes – the exact prediction from the CSIR – versus the DA’s 25.2%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CSIR predicted a 25.8% outcome for the DA. The predictions for the other leading parties are similarly close, with all of the top five being within 1 percentage point of the projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CSIR\u2019s election prediction model is based on the analysis of historical voting behaviour patterns and an understanding of how voting district results are received and reported during the counting process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By combining these, the model groups voting districts with similar characteristics using statistical clustering techniques, enabling it to generate projections before all districts have reported their results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the national picture appears on target, the outcome across the major metros is still developing, as all except eThekwini approach or surpass the 50% mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The developing outcome is a decisive blow to the ANC, which has so far lost ground across all eight metropolitan municipalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The DA, meanwhile, has emerged as the front-runner in all but two cities: Buffalo City remains an ANC stronghold, while eThekwini is on track to be a crowning achievement for the MK Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CSIR’s metro predictions are changing as the vote count data filters through to the public, but this is how the group sees the leading party in each city.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Metro vote count leaders<\/h2>\n\n\n\nMetro<\/th> 2021 lead<\/th> CSIR predicted lead<\/th> Current lead<\/th> Total votes counted<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> Johannesburg<\/td> ANC<\/td> DA<\/td> DA<\/td> 40.4%<\/td><\/tr> Tshwane<\/td> ANC<\/td> DA<\/td> DA<\/td> 58.8%<\/td><\/tr> Ekurhuleni<\/td> ANC<\/td> DA<\/td> DA<\/td> 55.1%<\/td><\/tr> Cape Town<\/td> DA<\/td> DA<\/td> DA<\/td> 48.6%<\/td><\/tr> Mangaung<\/td> ANC<\/td> ANC<\/td> DA<\/td> 49.7%<\/td><\/tr> Nelson Mandela Bay<\/td> DA<\/td> DA<\/td> DA<\/td> 65.7%<\/td><\/tr> eThekwini<\/td> ANC<\/td> TBA<\/td> MK<\/td> 17.8%<\/td><\/tr> Buffalo City<\/td> ANC<\/td> ANC<\/td> ANC<\/td> 96.3%<\/td><\/tr> National<\/strong><\/td>ANC<\/strong><\/td>ANC<\/strong><\/td>ANC<\/strong><\/td>67.5%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\nNotably, even with some sweeping changes in the metros – particularly in Gauteng – only one is expected to have an outright majority: the DA in the City of Cape Town.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, all other metros will ultimately be run by coalition governments, with tough negotiations ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The electoral commission is expected to publish the outcome of the local government vote and the allocation of seats on the 257 municipal councils over the weekend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
| Metro<\/th> | 2021 lead<\/th> | CSIR predicted lead<\/th> | Current lead<\/th> | Total votes counted<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannesburg<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | DA<\/td> | DA<\/td> | 40.4%<\/td><\/tr> |
| Tshwane<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | DA<\/td> | DA<\/td> | 58.8%<\/td><\/tr> |
| Ekurhuleni<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | DA<\/td> | DA<\/td> | 55.1%<\/td><\/tr> |
| Cape Town<\/td> | DA<\/td> | DA<\/td> | DA<\/td> | 48.6%<\/td><\/tr> |
| Mangaung<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | DA<\/td> | 49.7%<\/td><\/tr> |
| Nelson Mandela Bay<\/td> | DA<\/td> | DA<\/td> | DA<\/td> | 65.7%<\/td><\/tr> |
| eThekwini<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | TBA<\/td> | MK<\/td> | 17.8%<\/td><\/tr> |
| Buffalo City<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | ANC<\/td> | 96.3%<\/td><\/tr> |
National<\/strong><\/td>| ANC<\/strong><\/td> | ANC<\/strong><\/td> | ANC<\/strong><\/td> | 67.5%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n | Notably, even with some sweeping changes in the metros – particularly in Gauteng – only one is expected to have an outright majority: the DA in the City of Cape Town.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, all other metros will ultimately be run by coalition governments, with tough negotiations ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The electoral commission is expected to publish the outcome of the local government vote and the allocation of seats on the 257 municipal councils over the weekend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n |
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