Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the end of the second week in November shows that fortunes are turning for fuel prices in the country following months of steep increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CEF’s latest recovery data shows a solid over-recovery of R2.86 per litre for petrol 93 and R3.12 per litre for petrol 95.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even when factoring in the 50 cents per litre that will be added back into pricing from the reduction of National Treasury’s fuel tax relief, motorists are in line for a sizeable cut at the pumps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding 50 cents back to the price would still see a R2.30-R2.60 cut in prices at current levels (slate levy adjustments notwithstanding). This would be the biggest cut this year, after the R1.96 cut in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Diesel prices are also currently building an over-recovery of 97 cents per litre for 0.05% sulphur and R1.34 per litre for 0.005% sulphur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, these over-recoveries are not yet high enough to counter the R1.50 per litre in taxes being added back into pump prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This means diesel users are still on track for a hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the positive news for diesel is that the over-recoveries have been trending higher since the start of the month, and could cross the R1.50 per litre threshold should market conditions improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here are the latest projections from the CEF:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The table below outlines how prices could be adjusted:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The turn in fuel price recoveries is being driven almost exclusively by a reversal in global oil prices, with the rand\/dollar contribution flat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The rand has been stuck around R16.50 per dollar for most of the month, despite the positive MTBPS in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Friday (13 November), the local unit weakened to around R16.75\/$ as markets look ahead to the latest inflation data and the Reserve Bank’s next interest rate move next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With the exchange rate contributing around 1 cent per litre to the over-recovery, oil prices account for the actual balance, having dropped below $100 a barrel at the start of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since then, prices have sustained below that level, sitting in a tight range between $94 and $96 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The drop in global oil prices followed a “blue wave” in the United States mid-term elections, where Democrats secured a majority in the House and Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The dismal showing by the Republicans was blamed on the Trump Administration’s war against Iran, with the vote putting hope in markets that the United States would more swiftly move towards a ceasefire or withdrawal from the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, while the House and Senate have shifted colours, the Trump Administration remains in the driving seat, and so the risk premium attached to oil will not simply disappear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bloomberg’s analysis of oil markets noted that US President Donald Trump has dismissed the idea of signing a deal with Iran, dimming prospects for a breakthrough to end the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump instructed Vice President JD Vance to focus on domestic issues rather than negotiations with Tehran, throwing cold water on ongoing back-channel talks and dampening prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe don\u2019t need a deal with Iran,\u201d the president wrote in a post on Truth Social on Thursday. \u201cThose days have long since passed. We\u2019ve got their money, hundreds of billions of dollars, and we\u2019ve got their strait!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Notably, while lower oil prices are delivering positive recoveries in local fuel prices, oil futures are still up almost 60% this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In context, this means that even with a sizeable cut in petrol prices building for December, motorists will still be paying R6.20 per litre more for petrol than at the start of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Data from the CEF for the end of the second week in November shows that fortunes are turning for fuel prices in South Africa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":861189,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"failed","_sma_x_autopost_error":"Instagram publishing failed: Instagram returned HTTP 400: Media ID is not available","_sma_x_post_id":"2121182543571505184","_sma_facebook_post_id":"191437357620492_2271675853652813","_sma_instagram_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,19909,18450,2171],"class_list":["post-884143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-diesel-price","tag-oil-price","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884143","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=884143"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884143\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":884219,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884143\/revisions\/884219"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/861189"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=884143"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=884143"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=884143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Week 2<\/th> Petrol 93<\/th> Petrol 95<\/th> Diesel 0.05%<\/th> Diesel 0.005%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> November price (inland)<\/td> R29.87<\/td> R30.24<\/td> R30.85<\/td> R31.60<\/td><\/tr> Recovery<\/td> -R2.86<\/mark><\/td> -R3.12<\/mark><\/td> -R0.97<\/mark><\/td> -R1.34<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> NT relief reversal<\/td> +R0.50<\/mark><\/td> +R0.50<\/mark><\/td> +R1.50<\/mark><\/td> +R1.50<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> Difference<\/td> -R2.36<\/mark><\/td> -R2.62<\/mark><\/td> +R0.53<\/mark><\/td> +R0.16<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> December projection<\/strong><\/td> R27.51<\/strong><\/mark><\/td> R27.62<\/strong><\/mark><\/td> R31.38<\/mark><\/strong><\/td> R31.76<\/mark><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div> Fuel price changes in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Month<\/th> Petrol 95<\/th> Diesel 0.005%<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> January (pre-war)<\/td> -R0.66<\/mark><\/td> -R1.50<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> February (pre-war)<\/td> -R0.65<\/mark><\/td> -R0.57<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> March<\/td> +R0.20<\/mark><\/td> +R0.65<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> April<\/td> +R3.06<\/mark><\/td> +R7.51<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> May<\/td> +R3.27<\/mark><\/td> +R5.27<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> June<\/td> +R1.43<\/mark><\/td> -R2.62<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> July<\/td> -R1.96<\/mark><\/td> -R3.59<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> August<\/td> -R0.52<\/mark><\/td> +R1.23<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> September<\/td> +R1.34<\/mark><\/td> +R3.15<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> October<\/td> +R3.33<\/mark><\/td> +R3.24<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> November<\/td> -R0.01<\/mark><\/td> -R1.20<\/mark><\/td><\/tr> Total difference<\/strong><\/td> +R8.83<\/strong><\/td> +R13.97<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> December (CEF recoveries)<\/td> -R3.12<\/em><\/td> -R1.34<\/em><\/td><\/tr> NT relief reversal<\/td> +R.50<\/em><\/td> +R1.50<\/td><\/tr> December (projected)<\/td> -R2.62<\/em><\/td> +R0.16<\/em><\/td><\/tr> Total projected difference<\/em><\/strong><\/td> +R6.21<\/strong><\/em><\/td> +R14.13<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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