There is a more than 50% chance that the country’s energy grid will suffer a total collapse soon, energy analyst Ted Blom said on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
“I believe that the probability of a grid meltdown is more than 50%,” he told a National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) panel at a public hearing in Johannesburg on Eskom’s application for a further hike in tariffs.<\/p>\n
“A total grid collapse is what we don’t want to face because it will take you anything between a week and two weeks to recover, and I’m not even talking about the mayhem that will occur in the meantime.”<\/p>\n
He said this was a topic that had been treated quietly until last Wednesday, where Eskom said there was a zero possibility of a grid collapse.<\/p>\n
Blom then gave the rundown of his reasoning.<\/p>\n
“According to my estimate, the weekend or overnight demand is around about 22 GW (gigawatts)… I might be wrong by a couple of gigawatts, I am not too worried about that.<\/p>\n
“The peak demand is 35.5 GW as we are told by Eskom – the winter demand,” he said.<\/p>\n
“These are the numbers that only came out in the last week from the “war room” … that the serviced, or what you and I know as roadworthy generator sets are roughly 40% of the fleet. Fair condition, 12% of the fleet. Poor condition, 21% of the fleet, critical condition, 26% of the fleet.”<\/p>\n
Blom said that if you add up the fair and roadworthy sets, you would get around 20 GW.<\/p>\n
“So you have 20 GW… the balance is poor and critical,” he said.<\/p>\n
“The normal safety margin around the world is 15%, that is roughly 6.5 GW.<\/p>\n
“Eskom’s new winter strategy, they told us proudly last week, will only have a 1 000 MW safety margin, and it is roughly 2.5% of what is considered an appropriate safety margin.<\/p>\n
“So according to that, and I am willing to challenge anybody… I am forecasting that there is a better than 50% probability of a total grid collapse.”<\/p>\n
Blom also ran through Eskom’s “state of health”, where he illustrated various shortfalls Eskom was suffering, including coal, water and maintenance .<\/p>\n
“I don’t think it will survive five years in its current state… you decide that for yourself,” he said.<\/p>\n
“I think it is patently clear that this Eskom is not sustainable, a fact that auditors should have whistle-blown on years ago, and I wonder why they haven’t… maybe they don’t want to lose the audit contract.”<\/p>\n
He also said Eskom must not get its request for its hike.<\/p>\n
The parastatal is applying for a 24.78% increase. It had already received a 12.6% increase, which would make up part of the 24.78%.<\/p>\n
“As far as I am concerned, there is no legal basis for the re-opener [the application for the higher tariffs].”<\/p>\n
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